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Comment by robinsoncrusue

16 hours ago

Always look at the actions, not the talks.

Reality on the ground is: US has been amassing troops in tens of thousands. Their mercenary IDF is claiming territory like a field day. Market has barely capitulated (which is the only thing this admin care about).

I expect this is just Trump buying time until he launches ground invasion after two weeks of failed negotiation. You don't spend millions sending tens of thousands of soldiers and billion dollar worth of hardware to just call them back to base.

Trump will "negotiate" and then in the middle of negotiation start a ground invasion just like they did in the past while they map all the military targets for ground invasion (which is hard to when missiles flying all the time). Possibly also replenish their interceptor stocks from other regions which has been running low.

If you follow the kind of people advising him and have his ears (Witkoff, Kushner, Loomer, Levin) they are all for ground invasion.

But yeah, win for US. Oil prices will rebound giving economy the breathing time. Possibly also time to arm the insurgents to regroup for regime change.

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robinsoncrusue

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throw0101c  15 hours ago

> Reality on the ground is: US has been amassing troops in tens of thousands.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq had 500,000 troops, for a country smaller in area than Iran and with fewer people.

The current 50,000 US troops isn't going to do much against Iran as a whole.

jopsen  15 hours ago

> Their mercenary IDF

Lol, under what definition?

Personally, I have a hard time seeing any good actors here.

But of all the actors, I kind of doubt Israel is in it for the money.

surgical_fire  16 hours ago

Tens of thousands of troops are not really enough to invade a country the size of Iran.

The US used an order of magnitude more in Iraq, which had a third of the population, and a smaller and more geographically forgiving territory.

phainopepla2  16 hours ago

> Trump will "negotiate" and then in the middle of negotiation start a ground invasion just like they did in the past while they map all the military targets for ground invasion (which is hard to when missiles flying all the time)

Why is it hard map military targets while missiles are flying? Don't missile launches reveal targets? And I would assume that the mapping is mostly done via satellite, which aren't affected by missiles