US didn't achieve any of the goals it stated during any part of the war. The "goals" it achieved were largely a restoration of the status quo ante, modulo an enormous new revenue stream for Iran.
US spent vast amounts of money on not achieving any meaningful objective, while at the same time granting the opposition items from their long-term wish list (removal of sanctions). That's a loss.
If Iran's leaders' brains are not made of rotten oatmeal, they will massively accelerate their nuclear weapons program with their windfall.
Before today, only ships Iran deigned to let pass the Strait of Hormuz could go through without risking attack from Iran. As a result of the ceasefire, Iran must let any ship through the Strait... unless Iran objects to its passage.
There does not appear to be an actual meaningful change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, which does not make it a win. Of course, there's a broader loss which is that the US is strategically in a much worse position than it was a month ago. Reopening the Strait with free passage of ships would be a return to status quo ante bellum, but the US can't even manage that... which means that it's a major loss for the US, quite possibly the worst strategic loss in its entire history.
The war hasn't even started. What you have seen is the amuse-bouche. What you would see, if there was a real war going on, is the end of the iranian civilization.
This little school yard fight was just Trump trying to get a peace prize. He miscalculated, so as soon as things are back to normal, he will declare victory, ignore all facts to the contrary and go home.
As always I thank Trump for the amazing investment opportunities he is always creating! =)
> What you would see, if there was a real war going on, is the end of the iranian civilization.
While the US is capable of levelling all settlements, let alone cities, in Iran, it would be an extremely Pyrrhic victory. Like, oil would rise to $200 as a baseline, with occasional spikes at $300, US general inflation would gain 3-7% over baseline (food in particular 25% or so), and piss off all other trading partners worldwide, which amongst other things will make European nations transition even faster to renewables and nuclear using stuff they buy from China and make locally rather than from the US because they actually export useful hardware while the US mostly exports end user licence agreements and what little hardware it exports is itself heavily dependent on China and we can cut out the destabilising middle-man.
Given how many European nations rejected US requests for base/airspace use even with this conflict, a total war against Iran would probably have the US asked to vacate all existing bases in Europe. Even if the US doesn't leave NATO it will become a redundant organisation due to all other members making a new club without inviting the US.
And that's even if the US military obey illegal orders rather than their oaths, given the end of the Iranian civilisation would necessarily involve war crimes.
No. I'd actually say freedom of navigation [1] is almost the definition of a Pax. It's precedented across millenia in a way prohibitions on total war are not.
Let me be clear, prohibitions on total war are good. But they're also a new concept and one clearly the world's powers don't agree on to one iota. Freedom of navigation, on the other hand, benefits everyone but autarkies, and has for, again, millenia.
> "shall not suffer interference from other states when in international waters"
The strait of hormuz is NOT international waters.
UNCLOS states that "straits used for international navigation" shall allow transit with impedance, which would include the strait of Hormuz, but Iran has never ratified the treaty (and neither has the USA).
> No. I'd actually say freedom of navigation [1] is almost the definition of a Pax. It's precedented across millenia in a way prohibitions on total war are not.
What ? The U.S. themselves don't respect this. They only expect OTHER nations to follow it. UNCLOS has been MOCKED by U.S. Presidents all the time. Not just Trump. Reagan & Bush did too. And so do all the neocon U.S. Senators. In their view, the U.S. has a fundamental right to block traffic and setup embargoes.
One of the reasons they are dependent for economic survival on the us upholding some rule of law. And one of the reasons they stagnated in medieval times. Also ironical one of the driving reasons for western maritime exploration, to get around the endless taxing of trade.
> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal
And Iran has been respecting that principle for decades. So why exactly did the US and Israel (and GCC countries) think that the status quo would remain even if they keep antagonizing Iran? Imagine getting bombed during negotiations - not once, but twice in a single year! Their sovereignty was being disrespected, so now they're understandably establishing a new status quo.
And btw, if Iran and Oman cooperate, there is no threat to "freedom of navigation" under international law.
In a nutshell: play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Moreover, USA has been the first who has stopped respecting the freedom of navigation, by implementing a blockade of Cuba and preventing the oil tankers to reach Cuba, already since February, before the Iran war.
USA does not respect any international law, but it demands from others to do this.
Iran has been keeping it open to avoid attacks. Their first order of business if they get nuclear weapons would be closing the strait and implementing a far more massive toll. They already have ICBM capable of hitting Europe. This isn't really America's problem though, the price of oil won't go parabolic, it will fracture. That's what the current price action is leaning towards. So cheaper oil in the Americas and vastly more expensive oil in Europe.
Iran has been funding and arming groups which threaten maritime security for a while now. They also have been obviously attempting a nuclear weapons program while saying if they achieve their aim that they will do crazy shit.
I guess the games you think are stupid depend immensely on your priors.
Are you referring to Ansar Allah? Do you know why they decided to shutdown Bab Al Mandab?
So we are going to ignore the JCPOA? Also, the rumor is that there is another player in the region who has undeclared nuclear weapons and refuses IAEA inspections. Should we bomb them next?
Oman isn’t the only country in the region, and any country should expect their ships to sail peacefully. Last I checked it’s the US and Israel at war with Iran, not others - no justification for charging transit fees.
Second, you’re ignoring decades of history and picking an arbitrary point to say that’s when some animosity started. Nobody forced Iran to build all these missiles and to try and build a nuclear weapon or kill their own people or fund actual terrorist groups as designated by the United States and European Union. If you drag out negotiations long enough you never get bombed! What a thought lol.
> Nobody forced Iran to build all these missiles and to try and build a nuclear weapon or kill their own people or fund actual terrorist groups as designated by the United States and European Union
Iran has absolutely run its strategy as a basket case. But proxies aside (which is a big aside), they were fairly self contained until we started hitting them. At least this time around.
First, look at a map. The strait is entirely contained by Omani and Iranian waters.
Second, I don't have much else to say to you if you actually think that assassinating a head of state in the middle of active negotiations is anything but vile & uncivilized behavior unbecoming of a "civilized" superpower.
Ultimately, this is going to be a major strategic loss for the US and Israel. They have achieved none of the goals stated at the outset of this "operation", outside of perhaps diminishing the Iranian missile manufacturing capabilities & stockpile.
February 2026: USA blocking all oil tankers from going to Cuba, which has caused much more damage to the ordinary citizens of Cuba, than isolated incidents have done to other countries.
Any idea why they decided to shutdown the strait for the first time in decades? Or did they just suddenly wake up one day and decide that piracy is their calling?
And that deployed ship will do nothing. The only way forward is a negotiated agreement.
> Imagine getting bombed during negotiations - not once, but twice in a single year!
All other problems with the Iran war aside, there's absolutely nothing unusual about this, this is standard. Countries that go to war with each other are almost always mid-negotiations. Usually negotiations of some level go on throughout a war as well.
They bombed the negotiators who were in a third country who were hosting negotiations.
That's totally different from war continuing while negotiations take place. That's more like something the bad guys would do in a Game of Thrones plotline.
Gulf states have no ability to go to war. As this war has shown, the states are entirely dependent on oil and desalination plants, both of which are easily attackable infrastructure.
> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal and Iran has no legitimate right to stop other countries from trade.
The US is stopping other countries from trading with Cuba and Iran. The US doesn’t have the “right” to do that, but it doesn’t need the “right”. It
only needs power.
Iran has power over the Hormuz and is exerting it for what it deems is in its interest.
> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it
Maybe? But I doubt it - $1 per barrel amounts to like 1-2% of the price of oil. They may not like it but it’s not going to affect their bottom line nearly as much as closing the strait for 1 week will. A war with Iran would mean utter destruction of all oil infrastructure in the region, so probably better to pay 2% to avoid that.
If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too and any moralistic argument seems easy to shelve. It cuts both ways.
The Gulf States aren’t going to pay a tax to Iran. It’s a matter of principle - can’t live as a hostage and this is the weakest that the Iranian regime has been in quite some time. Better to keep the straight closed and make it painful for everyone else too.
> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal
Unlike Bosporus & Suez (similar choke points in the region), there's no international arrangement for the Hormuz bottleneck, nor has Iran ratified UNCLOS ("Convention on the Law of the Sea").
And in the real world I see, the Iranian regime is able to absorb a tremendous amount of pain and stay in power.
During their war with Iraq they cleared mine fields with big groups of teenagers.
I think it’s likely they would withstand whatever the US bombing does, and in return damage tons of gulf oil and gas infrastructure, as well as ships already in the gulf.
Presumably, the ships that want to pass through the strait will have to care. As you said, there's no room for compromise.
> shows they don’t live in the real world.
i don't think iran is the country living in a world of delusion—to the contrary, they seem to understand how to leverage their position better than israel, the US, and the gulf states combined.
> I wouldn’t worry about that lol. Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.
And yet they haven't gone to war (or joined in the war) to open up the SoH so far.
Their military capabilities aren’t that great and they’re scared most likely. Iran is the big neighborhood bully and stockpiled thousands of missiles. Better to let the US Navy and US Air Force take out Iran’s capabilities to limit destruction of their civilian facilities which Iran has threatened to blow up. But hey they can just round up civilians and put them next to the desalination plants like Iran did the bridges. You think that will stop the Iranians? ;)
And folks it has been just over a month. Give it time. The Gulf States are already placing orders for military equipment from countries like Ukraine - the one that has experience fighting drones that Russia buys from… you guessed it - Iran!
nobody will want to fight for Gulf monarchies, it is actually the opposite: population has a great incentive to overthrow the rich decadent UK-installed monarchies and redistribute oil revenues more fairly.
US was a guarantor of peace for monarchies, but seems like not anymore
It doesn’t really bother the US specifically, it raises oil prices for everyone. The only difference is the US is the only that has a military that can actually do anything about it. We’re not going to let them charge ships like that nor would the Gulf States allow it - it’s existential. They expect to be able to trade products on the free market under safe seas like any other country. This is a core global principle. If the US walks away this failure falls on the global community for continuing to stand by and do nothing while these guys load up on missiles and try to build a nuclear weapon and then they can charge even more for the straight.
You're correct about the chain of events, but you aren't modeling the fact that the person who got us into this war had all of this explained to him many times and decided to YOLO it anyway. He was comfortable with that bad decision, why not this one?
> We’re not going to let them charge ships like that nor would the Gulf States allow it - it’s existential
We may not give a fuck. Unless the Gulf is going to secure Hormuz, or engage in tit-for-tat with Tehran, this could very well become the new status quo.
From a purely pecuniary perspective, transit fees on Gulf oil means more profit for American exports. (And the party in power doesn't care about California.)
But can the US military actually do anything about it? They've been trying for five weeks and Iran has successfully fended them off.
It's really hard to look at this situation as anything but a loss for the United States. Tens of billions wasted in a matter of weeks, years of missile inventory depleted, People of all stripes rightfully calling Trump and Hegseth war criminals, and most of all -- they have nothing to show for it. Nothing.
Iran won this war and they're going to be resupplied and rebuilt by China. This is a "If it bleeds we can kill it" moment for America's enemies. They know that they can stand up against America on the battle field and walk away bruised but still walking.
The way I see it Americans are in complete denial about this right now. Denial is but the first stage of grief and the nation will have to trudge through the rest of that process but they'll eventually come to terms about the death of their empire.
It'll take at least a generation before Americans can appreciate the consequences of their poor choices over the last few decades but they will come to terms with it. They have to or they risk a slow and steady spiral into irrelevance.
The US gained absolutely nothing from this and lost everything.
Trump will just spin it as a win by saying that ships are moving through the SoH again and not mentioning the Iran tollbooth. Most of his supporters won't question it.
If something gets flagged down that hard, it’s easy to see in show dead. I almost never see anything flagged/dead that didn’t actually deserve it. The moderation here is excellent.
> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.
Is this not the war they're currently losing? the US is their military.
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US didn't achieve any of the goals it stated during any part of the war. The "goals" it achieved were largely a restoration of the status quo ante, modulo an enormous new revenue stream for Iran.
US spent vast amounts of money on not achieving any meaningful objective, while at the same time granting the opposition items from their long-term wish list (removal of sanctions). That's a loss.
If Iran's leaders' brains are not made of rotten oatmeal, they will massively accelerate their nuclear weapons program with their windfall.
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Before today, only ships Iran deigned to let pass the Strait of Hormuz could go through without risking attack from Iran. As a result of the ceasefire, Iran must let any ship through the Strait... unless Iran objects to its passage.
There does not appear to be an actual meaningful change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, which does not make it a win. Of course, there's a broader loss which is that the US is strategically in a much worse position than it was a month ago. Reopening the Strait with free passage of ships would be a return to status quo ante bellum, but the US can't even manage that... which means that it's a major loss for the US, quite possibly the worst strategic loss in its entire history.
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The war hasn't even started. What you have seen is the amuse-bouche. What you would see, if there was a real war going on, is the end of the iranian civilization.
This little school yard fight was just Trump trying to get a peace prize. He miscalculated, so as soon as things are back to normal, he will declare victory, ignore all facts to the contrary and go home.
As always I thank Trump for the amazing investment opportunities he is always creating! =)
> What you would see, if there was a real war going on, is the end of the iranian civilization.
While the US is capable of levelling all settlements, let alone cities, in Iran, it would be an extremely Pyrrhic victory. Like, oil would rise to $200 as a baseline, with occasional spikes at $300, US general inflation would gain 3-7% over baseline (food in particular 25% or so), and piss off all other trading partners worldwide, which amongst other things will make European nations transition even faster to renewables and nuclear using stuff they buy from China and make locally rather than from the US because they actually export useful hardware while the US mostly exports end user licence agreements and what little hardware it exports is itself heavily dependent on China and we can cut out the destabilising middle-man.
Given how many European nations rejected US requests for base/airspace use even with this conflict, a total war against Iran would probably have the US asked to vacate all existing bases in Europe. Even if the US doesn't leave NATO it will become a redundant organisation due to all other members making a new club without inviting the US.
And that's even if the US military obey illegal orders rather than their oaths, given the end of the Iranian civilisation would necessarily involve war crimes.
> As always I thank Trump for the amazing investment opportunities he is always creating! =)
Disgusting.
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Freedom of navigation is a core global principal
Like not attacking civilian infrastructure?
> Like not attacking civilian infrastructure?
No. I'd actually say freedom of navigation [1] is almost the definition of a Pax. It's precedented across millenia in a way prohibitions on total war are not.
Let me be clear, prohibitions on total war are good. But they're also a new concept and one clearly the world's powers don't agree on to one iota. Freedom of navigation, on the other hand, benefits everyone but autarkies, and has for, again, millenia.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation
> "shall not suffer interference from other states when in international waters"
The strait of hormuz is NOT international waters.
UNCLOS states that "straits used for international navigation" shall allow transit with impedance, which would include the strait of Hormuz, but Iran has never ratified the treaty (and neither has the USA).
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> I'd actually say freedom of navigation is almost the definition of a Pax
Right, and “Pax” are rare enough that we actually name them. I.e. Pax Romana etc. what we are seeing here is the end of Pax Americana.
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> No. I'd actually say freedom of navigation is almost the definition of a Pax
like, say, across a civilian bridge?
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> No. I'd actually say freedom of navigation [1] is almost the definition of a Pax. It's precedented across millenia in a way prohibitions on total war are not.
What ? The U.S. themselves don't respect this. They only expect OTHER nations to follow it. UNCLOS has been MOCKED by U.S. Presidents all the time. Not just Trump. Reagan & Bush did too. And so do all the neocon U.S. Senators. In their view, the U.S. has a fundamental right to block traffic and setup embargoes.
So blockades weren’t ever a thing?
You mean commercial navigation
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Of the western world.
Armed robbery of unbelievers always has been a core tenant of the islamic world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbary_Wars
One of the reasons they are dependent for economic survival on the us upholding some rule of law. And one of the reasons they stagnated in medieval times. Also ironical one of the driving reasons for western maritime exploration, to get around the endless taxing of trade.
> Armed robbery of unbelievers always has been a core tenant of the islamic world.
Which is why the fairly big Jewish population in Tehran is targeted by armed robbers on a daily basis?
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> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal
And Iran has been respecting that principle for decades. So why exactly did the US and Israel (and GCC countries) think that the status quo would remain even if they keep antagonizing Iran? Imagine getting bombed during negotiations - not once, but twice in a single year! Their sovereignty was being disrespected, so now they're understandably establishing a new status quo.
And btw, if Iran and Oman cooperate, there is no threat to "freedom of navigation" under international law.
In a nutshell: play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Moreover, USA has been the first who has stopped respecting the freedom of navigation, by implementing a blockade of Cuba and preventing the oil tankers to reach Cuba, already since February, before the Iran war.
USA does not respect any international law, but it demands from others to do this.
Iran has been keeping it open to avoid attacks. Their first order of business if they get nuclear weapons would be closing the strait and implementing a far more massive toll. They already have ICBM capable of hitting Europe. This isn't really America's problem though, the price of oil won't go parabolic, it will fracture. That's what the current price action is leaning towards. So cheaper oil in the Americas and vastly more expensive oil in Europe.
Oil is fungible, so the cost will find an equilibrium regardless of source (excluding quality differences).
Iran has been funding and arming groups which threaten maritime security for a while now. They also have been obviously attempting a nuclear weapons program while saying if they achieve their aim that they will do crazy shit.
I guess the games you think are stupid depend immensely on your priors.
Are you referring to Ansar Allah? Do you know why they decided to shutdown Bab Al Mandab?
So we are going to ignore the JCPOA? Also, the rumor is that there is another player in the region who has undeclared nuclear weapons and refuses IAEA inspections. Should we bomb them next?
is that really reason to go to war though?
the US has been doing that in the gulf of mexico; should we be destorying the american civilization as a result?
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Israel and the US are both nuclear armed and are doing crazy shit.
Oman isn’t the only country in the region, and any country should expect their ships to sail peacefully. Last I checked it’s the US and Israel at war with Iran, not others - no justification for charging transit fees.
Second, you’re ignoring decades of history and picking an arbitrary point to say that’s when some animosity started. Nobody forced Iran to build all these missiles and to try and build a nuclear weapon or kill their own people or fund actual terrorist groups as designated by the United States and European Union. If you drag out negotiations long enough you never get bombed! What a thought lol.
>and any country should expect their ships to sail peacefully
Tbf the US seized plenty of theirs, others and such.
>Last I checked it’s the US and Israel at war with Iran, not others
The US bases and provided landing spots and ports, etc kind of speak otherwise and they don't have other ways of getting money from the US I believe.
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> Nobody forced Iran to build all these missiles and to try and build a nuclear weapon or kill their own people or fund actual terrorist groups as designated by the United States and European Union
Iran has absolutely run its strategy as a basket case. But proxies aside (which is a big aside), they were fairly self contained until we started hitting them. At least this time around.
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First, look at a map. The strait is entirely contained by Omani and Iranian waters.
Second, I don't have much else to say to you if you actually think that assassinating a head of state in the middle of active negotiations is anything but vile & uncivilized behavior unbecoming of a "civilized" superpower.
Ultimately, this is going to be a major strategic loss for the US and Israel. They have achieved none of the goals stated at the outset of this "operation", outside of perhaps diminishing the Iranian missile manufacturing capabilities & stockpile.
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>"Nobody forced Iran to build all these missiles and to try and build a nuclear weapon or kill their own people or fund actual terrorist groups"
Sounds exactly like the US with the exception that they prefer to kill other people, not their own.
> Iran has been respecting that principle for decades
May 2022: two Greek Tankers seized by IRGC commandos
2023: Tankers Advnatage Sweet and Niovi seized by IRGC commandos
Jan 2024: St. Nikolas seized by Iranian Navy
Apr 2024: MSC Aries seized by IRGC commandos
During the Tanker War 1981 - 1988: Iran was responsible for approximately 168 attacks on merchant ships
July 1987: Kuwait tanker MV Bridgeton struck by Iranian mine April
1988: USS SAmuel B. Roberts nearly sunk by Iranian mine.
2019 Limpet Mine Attacks
July 2021: Iranian drone strike on MT Mercer Street
Nov 2022: Pacific Zircon struck by Iranian drone
You forgot:
February 2026: USA blocking all oil tankers from going to Cuba, which has caused much more damage to the ordinary citizens of Cuba, than isolated incidents have done to other countries.
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> play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Yeah, the game Iran is now trying to play is called “Pipelines and Pirates”.
There’s actually a ship deployed to the region right now named after the standard US response to this game, the USS Tripoli.[1]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War
Any idea why they decided to shutdown the strait for the first time in decades? Or did they just suddenly wake up one day and decide that piracy is their calling?
And that deployed ship will do nothing. The only way forward is a negotiated agreement.
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from the outside it seems getting bombed is more antagonizing than propaganda.
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Sorry but US has created this b roll since the 50s.
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> Imagine getting bombed during negotiations - not once, but twice in a single year!
All other problems with the Iran war aside, there's absolutely nothing unusual about this, this is standard. Countries that go to war with each other are almost always mid-negotiations. Usually negotiations of some level go on throughout a war as well.
They bombed the negotiators who were in a third country who were hosting negotiations.
That's totally different from war continuing while negotiations take place. That's more like something the bad guys would do in a Game of Thrones plotline.
Gulf states have no ability to go to war. As this war has shown, the states are entirely dependent on oil and desalination plants, both of which are easily attackable infrastructure.
> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal and Iran has no legitimate right to stop other countries from trade.
The US is stopping other countries from trading with Cuba and Iran. The US doesn’t have the “right” to do that, but it doesn’t need the “right”. It only needs power.
Iran has power over the Hormuz and is exerting it for what it deems is in its interest.
> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it
Maybe? But I doubt it - $1 per barrel amounts to like 1-2% of the price of oil. They may not like it but it’s not going to affect their bottom line nearly as much as closing the strait for 1 week will. A war with Iran would mean utter destruction of all oil infrastructure in the region, so probably better to pay 2% to avoid that.
If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too and any moralistic argument seems easy to shelve. It cuts both ways.
The Gulf States aren’t going to pay a tax to Iran. It’s a matter of principle - can’t live as a hostage and this is the weakest that the Iranian regime has been in quite some time. Better to keep the straight closed and make it painful for everyone else too.
> If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too
Yes, that’s exactly my point. any country can do whatever they want … within the limits of their powers.
What is currently stopping US/Israel from forcing Iran to open the strait of Hormuz?
I don’t believe they have the ability to take out enough of Iran’s missiles/drones to prevent Iran from exerting its control of the Strait.
> It’s a matter of principle
“ Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
Thucydides
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We all live as hostages to America. Well except China. Not even Trump is insane enough to mess with them the PLA shoots back.
Closing the strait for 1 week is 1.9% of annual traffic if equally distributed, so it is very similar.
Exactly, I think the Iranis are shrewd enough to price their tax so that it looks attractive to the alternative.
> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal
Unlike Bosporus & Suez (similar choke points in the region), there's no international arrangement for the Hormuz bottleneck, nor has Iran ratified UNCLOS ("Convention on the Law of the Sea").
hmm? Suez is a man-made facility, and it costs money to operate it
so... maybe we should go back to the pirate days yarrr?
> Suez is a man-made facility
If only the comment you're replying to had included another example.
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And in the real world I see, the Iranian regime is able to absorb a tremendous amount of pain and stay in power.
During their war with Iraq they cleared mine fields with big groups of teenagers.
I think it’s likely they would withstand whatever the US bombing does, and in return damage tons of gulf oil and gas infrastructure, as well as ships already in the gulf.
They have the advantage here
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You're absolutely right that the ratification of laws isn't of consequence here and that we live in the real world.
And in this real world Iran has successfully exerted their will over the waterway and is clearly in control of it.
That's real and that's not going away so countries will continue to pay them because they have no choice.
Iran is holding all the cards here.
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Presumably, the ships that want to pass through the strait will have to care. As you said, there's no room for compromise.
> shows they don’t live in the real world.
i don't think iran is the country living in a world of delusion—to the contrary, they seem to understand how to leverage their position better than israel, the US, and the gulf states combined.
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this
think there will be some coalition of some sorts
just mentioning "toll" is enough to "be made an example"
> I wouldn’t worry about that lol. Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.
And yet they haven't gone to war (or joined in the war) to open up the SoH so far.
Their military capabilities aren’t that great and they’re scared most likely. Iran is the big neighborhood bully and stockpiled thousands of missiles. Better to let the US Navy and US Air Force take out Iran’s capabilities to limit destruction of their civilian facilities which Iran has threatened to blow up. But hey they can just round up civilians and put them next to the desalination plants like Iran did the bridges. You think that will stop the Iranians? ;)
And folks it has been just over a month. Give it time. The Gulf States are already placing orders for military equipment from countries like Ukraine - the one that has experience fighting drones that Russia buys from… you guessed it - Iran!
nobody will want to fight for Gulf monarchies, it is actually the opposite: population has a great incentive to overthrow the rich decadent UK-installed monarchies and redistribute oil revenues more fairly.
US was a guarantor of peace for monarchies, but seems like not anymore
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It doesn’t really bother the US specifically, it raises oil prices for everyone. The only difference is the US is the only that has a military that can actually do anything about it. We’re not going to let them charge ships like that nor would the Gulf States allow it - it’s existential. They expect to be able to trade products on the free market under safe seas like any other country. This is a core global principle. If the US walks away this failure falls on the global community for continuing to stand by and do nothing while these guys load up on missiles and try to build a nuclear weapon and then they can charge even more for the straight.
Principles are just power in disguise.
You're correct about the chain of events, but you aren't modeling the fact that the person who got us into this war had all of this explained to him many times and decided to YOLO it anyway. He was comfortable with that bad decision, why not this one?
Given all that, maybe we shouldn't have attacked. Doesn't seem like it really did anything.
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> We’re not going to let them charge ships like that nor would the Gulf States allow it - it’s existential
We may not give a fuck. Unless the Gulf is going to secure Hormuz, or engage in tit-for-tat with Tehran, this could very well become the new status quo.
From a purely pecuniary perspective, transit fees on Gulf oil means more profit for American exports. (And the party in power doesn't care about California.)
But can the US military actually do anything about it? They've been trying for five weeks and Iran has successfully fended them off.
It's really hard to look at this situation as anything but a loss for the United States. Tens of billions wasted in a matter of weeks, years of missile inventory depleted, People of all stripes rightfully calling Trump and Hegseth war criminals, and most of all -- they have nothing to show for it. Nothing.
Iran won this war and they're going to be resupplied and rebuilt by China. This is a "If it bleeds we can kill it" moment for America's enemies. They know that they can stand up against America on the battle field and walk away bruised but still walking.
The way I see it Americans are in complete denial about this right now. Denial is but the first stage of grief and the nation will have to trudge through the rest of that process but they'll eventually come to terms about the death of their empire.
It'll take at least a generation before Americans can appreciate the consequences of their poor choices over the last few decades but they will come to terms with it. They have to or they risk a slow and steady spiral into irrelevance.
The US gained absolutely nothing from this and lost everything.
That's how every empire falls.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8GgdL2xBYY
Trump will just spin it as a win by saying that ships are moving through the SoH again and not mentioning the Iran tollbooth. Most of his supporters won't question it.
There's not much of a real way to see what we say on this site because most of it gets flagged in violation of the rules.
If something gets flagged down that hard, it’s easy to see in show dead. I almost never see anything flagged/dead that didn’t actually deserve it. The moderation here is excellent.
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