Comment by kadoban
8 hours ago
> This isn't a lifting of sanctions in the manner you meant or was being discussed. If anything it's the opposite! The US said we'll let you sell oil to keep prices down so your closure of the Straight has less impact while we bomb you.
You hopefully realize that _I_ probably know what I meant, and that I'm in the discussion?
This is what I said:
> The sanctions are gone or heavily weakened so their can sell their oil to the world instead of selling it to China at a relative loss
What about that doesn't match the link I provided? Iran gets to sell their oil more easily and for more money, because we dropped sanctions. I didn't mention the why the US chose to do it, but "we fucked up and need to panic and try to do anything possible to keep oil prices down" doesn't make it any less true.
> Well to date they lost a lot of military equipment that they can't get back - we would bomb it again too. They've lost any progress toward nuclear weapons unless helped by other adversaries like China, Russia, or North Korea, and they've had their leadership destroyed.
I don't know the details of their nuclear program, but my understanding is that they have a bunch of highly enriched uranium and they lost ~none of it. I would guess that they're about where they were before except now they certainly know they need to go for a bomb at all costs and will do so. There's no choice, because the US won't stop until they do. They had a deal where they agreed not to pursue a bomb, and the US broke it, and now the US keeps attacking whenever they feel like it.
> Like, in what world does a comment like this even make sense? "They lost a lot of stuff, but they gained ways to build 100x as much back."
> How did they gain a way to build 100x what they lost when they have no ability to build anything at scale that we don't allow? If they build a factory we just blow it up.
They will come out of this with more money due to having a better excuse to exploit the Strait and reduced or eliminated sanctions.
You think we're going to just sit there and blow up every factory they build for all eternity? Then why did we propose a ceasefire? Will the agreement after this war include that they never get to build another factory? What do you think happens from here?
I think I'm good on this discussion, have a good day. Just look at what the _actual_ outcome of this war is in a few weeks and see if Iran's regime is better or worse off than they started. I think if you actually see the truth of what happens you'll be surprised.
Your view of war seems to be rooted in "well I really blew that thing up good, I win!". It's not that simple.
> The sanctions are gone or heavily weakened so their can sell their oil to the world instead of selling it to China at a relative loss
Just a reminder you were wrong about this part: (a lot of equipment on both sides).
Secondly the regime hasn't "hugely improved their source of funds" - sanctions aren't gone, they're still en force related to Iran the country and no sanctions were "dropped" because of Iran's asinine bullet points. The US deciding to let some oil shipments through to help stabilize oil prices so everyone else doesn't have to suffer the pain as much isn't the same thing as what you are implying here. Nobody is panicking - we've dealt with high oil prices before, as recently as 2022. The US also lifted some sanctions temporarily on Russian oil - does that mean we lifted all sanctions and agreed to all of their demands? No. Be mature. These things require give and take, and tactical choices and trade offs.
> I don't know the details of their nuclear program, but my understanding is that they have a bunch of highly enriched uranium and they lost ~none of it. I would guess that they're about where they were before except now they certainly know they need to go for a bomb at all costs and will do so.
Ok that's seems to be one of the misunderstandings on your part. Iran doesn't control this stuff. Whatever uranium they have they have lost access to because if they attempt to retrieve it or move it, we bomb or we come in and take it.
> There's no choice, because the US won't stop until they do.
Right, and we won't let them have a bomb so they'll just get bombed anytime they try and build one. We can run in circles about this all day but the end result is this: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Period. No matter what the justification or reasoning is they'll never be permitted to have one.
> They had a deal where they agreed not to pursue a bomb, and the US broke it, and now the US keeps attacking whenever they feel like it.
There's a lot to litigate here, but suffice to say the deal wasn't working. Iran was still pursuing a bomb and denying inspectors appropriate access to nuclear enrichment facilities. They were also enriching uranium beyond what was approved and even when the US offered to supply them with nuclear material for civilian use they declined. They've never pursued a peaceful nuclear program and now finally things have come to a head. It's weird how, everyone else seems to be doing just fine except a few select countries trying to do crazy shit. What if, like, idk, they stopped trying to build a bomb and fund terrorists?
> They will come out of this with more money due to having a better excuse to exploit the Strait and reduced or eliminated sanctions.
Ok but sanctions won't be eliminated, nor will they control the Strait to enact some sort of toll. The US and Gulf States won't agree to that.
> You think we're going to just sit there and blow up every factory they build for all eternity? Then why did we propose a ceasefire?
Yea, what the hell do you think our military is for? It's exactly for doing stuff like this. We proposed a ceasefire because we think now that they've seen how badly we can damage them and how ineffective their military is, that we can find an agreement. The US doesn't actually want war, they want Iran's government to stop being bad actors.
> Will the agreement after this war include that they never get to build another factory? What do you think happens from here?
Yes, the US proposal will include limits on what missile technology they can pursue.
> I think I'm good on this discussion, have a good day. Just look at what the _actual_ outcome of this war is in a few weeks and see if Iran's regime is better or worse off than they started. I think if you actually see the truth of what happens you'll be surprised.
Over the coming weeks/months the outcome will be a ceasefire agreement with Iran giving in to most US demands and the Straight open for business without tolls or additional costs, and the US agreeing to release some Iranian funds that are held or something along those lines. That's how these things go. Some on the Internet like to think and cheer on some sort of US downfall because they're reading Iranian propaganda and taking them for their word instead of thinking through these things logically, but the end result will be pretty much most of what the US wants for now. I don't think anything we do will be permanent though and eventually Iran will be caught funding terrorists yet again (this is honestly so fucking boring) and then we'll do airstrikes or something and there will be some saber rattling and rinse and repeat.
But hey - show some courage and post what you think will happen in a few weeks/months and then we'll check back and see who was right.
> nor will they control the Strait to enact some sort of toll. The US and Gulf States won't agree to that.
I'm not sure President Trump shares your view here:
"ABC News’s Jonathan Karl asked Trump if he approved of Iran’s plan to charge vessels a fee for passing through the strait — a key channel through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil is transported. “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” the president told Karl, who shared Trump’s response on the social platform X. “It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.”
https://x.com/jonkarl/status/2041839012097229086?s=46
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5821343-trump-us-ir...
> But hey - show some courage and post what you think will happen in a few weeks/months and then we'll check back and see who was right.
I mean, I already did. You also don't even agree on what _already_ happened, so I don't expect much to change in the next few weeks there. This for example:
> Just a reminder you were wrong about this part: (a lot of equipment on both sides).
You honestly think that the US didn't lose "a lot of equipment", or am I misreading what you're saying there?
But here's my predictions, consolidated:
The Strait will be monetized by Iran and more controlled compared to pre-war. Sanctions on Iran will be reduced or eliminated from their pre-war levels. There will not be any effective controls on what drones or missiles that Iran can build.
In five years, Iran will have a nuclear bomb. Probably much sooner, but I doubt it will be super public or unambiguous.
> No matter what the justification or reasoning is they'll never be permitted to have one.
Why does North Korea have nuclear weapons now, and why does that not apply to Iran in the future?