← Back to context

Comment by notThrowingAway

8 days ago

The year of the Linux Desktop will always be $CURRENT_YEAR + 1

To me, the year's in the past. I haven't touched Windows since 2017, and nothing bad happened to me.

But you're right, I guess for some people, there will already be a good reason not to use Linux.

What do you call a fallacy where it is implied that the future will be like the past?

  • Reminds me about schools of thought on rates of change:

      > ## Accelerating Change [One School]
      >
      > Our intuitions about change are linear; we expect roughly
      > as much change as has occurred in the past over our own
      > lifetimes. But technological change feeds on itself, and
      > therefore accelerates. Change today is faster than it was
      > 500 years ago, which in turn is faster than it was 5000
      > years ago. Our recent past is not a reliable guide to how
      > much change we should expect in the future.
      >
      > Strong claim: Technological change follows smooth curves, 
      > typically exponential. Therefore we can predict with fair
      > precision when new technologies will arrive, and when they
      > will cross key thresholds, like the creation of [AI].
      >
      > Advocates: Ray Kurzweil, Alvin Toffler(?), John Smart
    
      https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools

I did the switch in 2013 and haven't missed it. For games I ran vga_passthrough and later VFIO and others until pretty recently (I think right after covid I switched to steam directly on linux)