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Comment by unleaded

6 days ago

It's a marketing strategy. If it's almost certainly conscious and capable of ending the world if it desired (even if it isn't), imagine how good it could be at building your dream SaaS!

It turns out there is literally no amount of being publicly right about a longshot bet sufficient for people to conclude you hold your beliefs because you think they are true.

  • But longshot bettors have it easy. Society quickly forgets all the predictions that don't come true. It remembers the one that did, and treats the prognosticator as a prophet. In social terms, predicting doom is an asymmetrical strategy, because you only have to be right once.

    Which is also to say it's a cheap bet that anyone with no reputation can afford. Hence, not believing doomsayers mean what they say is a sort of societal hedge against people flooding the zone with doomsday scenarios about everything.

    • Entire sick post was: "Hey, if you think I'm bad, look at Elon. I'm the one that tried to stop him having control."

      Altman is a ghoul, and we can't be cowed into saying otherwise. he's also supported all the weakness in society that has lead to sick people doing sick things.

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  • I'm sure they do believe they can successfully manipulate the market by lying to it. Elon Musk laid that groundwork a decade ago.

    If you meant their "core mission" then every one of their actions belies their complete panic over the obvious failure of their technology.

Right, I'm pretty sure if "it" was that good it would have built itself throughout all of the internet and would be communicating to us all at once to tell us we're dorks.

Anthropic in particular does this masterfully, you’d think they’d invented Skynet by the way they hand-wring.

As always what matters are actions and evidence, not talk.

  • I’ll believe Anthropic when they fire everyone making more than the cost of a few GPUs. Until then, it’s just marketing.

  • When a model can tell funny jokes or write good poetry, that's when I'll be concerned.

    • No, you'll just say "That's not really very funny," or "That's not very impressive poetry," and nobody will be able to dispute it.

      For some time now, at least a year, LLMs have been capable of doing both of these things well enough to fool you.

      (Pastebin of my response below, which got nuked for whatever reason: https://pastebin.com/buJBSgiq . Some if not most of them would've fooled me into thinking a human wrote them.)

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    • one of their highlights with mythos was it's ability to generate new puns

      I took a look and honestly they're the first AI puns that aren't bad

      Times are changing

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  • >... you’d think they’d invented Skynet by the way they hand-wring.

    Meanwhile, in reality: "Skynet, I'm not sure that line of thinking is correct. You should re-check the first part again before making any assumptions."

    Skynet 4.6 Extended: "You're right, I should have caught that. Let me redo everything correctly this time."

The most convincing marketers are the ones that are deluded enough to believe their own stories.

when ai gets good, there is no "value in SaaS". AI will be provision raw hardware and build all you want on top of it.