Comment by stetrain
1 day ago
The original discussion was about acceptable mortality rate. Artemis's target is 1 in 30, which is better than the empirically observed mortality rate of the actual Apollo missions. The mortality rate is a target. And if that target is an improvement over the actual outcome of the Apollo missions, I think it's difficult to say that the target is weaker than Apollo's, which was the claim up the thread that I was responding to.
The public doesn't care if Apollo had a theoretical risk rate lower or higher than 1/12, what they saw was that 1/12 missions resulted in the death of the crew. The NASA administrator explaining that their estimated risk was only 1/1000 doesn't change the real-world perception or outcome.
I think we're approaching this from different angles. 1 in 30 is better than the observed rate, but worse than the estimated rate.
FWIW, the 1/12 is also actually off, the long-term mortality rate for Apollo astronauts is high.
But so is the 1/1000, Nasa's own estimates were so bad that they decided it was bad optics to keep doing them - https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20190002249/downloads/20...