Comment by theginger
15 hours ago
Does the existence of that knowledge make a slight bias lowering the odd on no? I could fork this and with a 1 line change earn dozens of dollars as long as I don't tell anyone what that secret change is.
15 hours ago
Does the existence of that knowledge make a slight bias lowering the odd on no? I could fork this and with a 1 line change earn dozens of dollars as long as I don't tell anyone what that secret change is.
No, I think the bias is really just a reflection of how propositions are phrased. We could imagine a mirror-world prediction market that offers all the same propositions, but phrased oppositely: e.g. a market in "person X will die by Y date" becomes a market in "person X will survive until Y date". And in that market, we would see a bias towards propositions resolving as Yes.