Comment by yabatopia
3 days ago
Instagram and WhatsApp were far from bets. Both were growing exponentially. Both were serious threats to Facebook's money machine.
Facebook used their lucky cash cow money to eliminate the threat, by offering way more than any reasonable market value. Absolutely crazy money. An offer they couldn't resist, especially the investors.
No bet, just an ice cold rational calculation. Anyone wealthy and crazy enough could have done the same. No skills needed, no risks involved. It's like betting tomorrow will be another day.
You're not wrong, but also, it's a bit of hindsight bias: how many sure thing acquisitions whither?
They don’t need to be “sure things”, only threats. Once you buy the threat, whether it continues to thrive or withers is largely immaterial, the threat is gone.