Comment by kwar13
5 hours ago
Betting "no" on an outcome, is bettering "yes" on ALL other possible outcomes. There is even an operation for it: https://docs.polymarket.com/advanced/neg-risk
5 hours ago
Betting "no" on an outcome, is bettering "yes" on ALL other possible outcomes. There is even an operation for it: https://docs.polymarket.com/advanced/neg-risk
Am I misunderstanding? I think that’s trivially not true. Consider:
Joe Dart elected president Y/N
Cory Wong elected president Y/N
A no bet on Joe Dart is not a yes bet on Cory Wong.
Dart/Wong for America ‘28 - Give America Back Its Groove.
Did you read the link? A NO bet on Joe Dart is a YES bet on Cory Wong + Others.
It is trivial. Saying NO to a candidate means you're saying YES to ALL other candidates with varying probabilities that would sum to the neg risk of that NO bet.
That's not true. The different outcomes don't have any relation to each other.
If you had only bothered to open the link and understand what it even being said.
If you don't think it's true, then go ahead and arb polymarket for all the incorrect pricing.