Comment by traderj0e
4 hours ago
The time horizon is unknown sometimes. One example event, "what will happen before GTA VI?" with markets like "China invades Taiwan" and "Jesus Christ returns." The NO for the second one is only 52c rn. Maybe that resolves if GTA VI is permanently canceled?
Yeah, those sorts of bets seem clearly bad unless there is an explicit time limit on them. Factoring in how long your capital is locked up in the bet and the opportunity cost of it being locked up has to be accounted for in determining your expected gains.