Comment by simianwords
2 hours ago
> I'm worried that the seven companies that comprise 35% of the S&P 500 are headed for bankruptcy, as soon as someone makes them stop passing around the same $100b IOU while pretending it's in all their bank accounts at once.
What makes this author so convinced that these companies are headed for bankruptcy? Is it possible to bet on this claim? We can come back 2-3 years later to check if even one of them is bankrupt.
This kind of doomerism is strange and I'm concerned for people who fall for such obviously nonsensical takes. Why do people take this person seriously again?
They are not convinced, simply worried. If you look at Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, etc that is sort of passing around 100B usd without it actually resulting in anything being produced, it becomes worrying. I don't think the author is convinced, simply worried.
Specifically, it is the act of "I will invest 100 Billion in you, you will use that money to buy 100 Billion worth of goods from me. Both our balances look good, none of us spent anything." As I understand it, this act isn't so uncommon in finances but never on this scale across this many companies.
Do you actually think nothing is being produced?
Not nothing but nothing compared to the amount being ordered and invested. I think Nvidia has enough orders to go to 2027, so they are way behind. A lot of companies though, aren't using even the limited amount of hardware being produced now, and this is from Microsoft, Meta, etc. The hardware side is certainly way behind the production. The software side is sort of clear for most people. None of the companies are really making returns on 100B investments, fairly evident given recent estimates and project shutdowns, SORA in particular. So when the 100B or I think 1 trillion is being quoted around now, is just floating, resulting in limited goods, and limited value from the limited goods, it becomes worrying. Because the extra valuations isn't resulting in extra value simply limited if not negative value.
If I give you an IOU for 10 bucks and you give me one in return, did we just produce 20 bucks?
3 replies →
What good is a bet you won't be able to collect on if it happens?
Why can't I collect on it?
Betting on systemic collapse of society has a challenge at the winnings collection point.
"Here's your trillion dollars. Go buy a slice of bread. Ooops… half slice. Well, quarter."
3 replies →
I think you really need to have boots on the ground in the AI cinematic universe to keep up and separate the wheat from the chatGPT. It's moving fast, warts and all, and I agree with Jensen Huang's take that we don't even need further advances in the technology to base a new industrial revolution on it.
But it's pointless to argue with the extremists that either believe it's just a planet killing stochastic parrot or that it's on the verge of becoming Skynet. I mean if someone puts their nuclear arsenal under the control of openclaw, that's dark comedy although it will seem like tragedy at the time because comedy equals tragedy plus time according to Lenny Bruce.
But the AI bubble is probably real w/r to shoe companies and grocery stores pivoting to AI and ludicrous w/r to the money that can be made by the already entrenched players just riding the wave of deployment and specialization. But wouldn't it be nice if the US spent more money addressing the shortage of compute rather than blowing $h!+ up for the lulz?
> But wouldn't it be nice if the US spent more money addressing the shortage of compute rather than blowing $h!+ up for the lulz?
No actually. The best way to ensure growth is in exactly these kind of industries that promote innovation. Sure some companies don't make it but that's the price to pay for risks.
This is a classic case of optimising for the short term and forgetting the long term benefits
So you're saying starting opt-in wars and blowing shit up is sound economic policy for the long run? Gonna disagree. I think the long view is unbounded compute. But I also believe it doesn't take up all that much space, and that we already have the technology to power it if we weren't squandering our impulse cash on dumb shit like subsidizing coal and wars of peacocking.
2 replies →