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Comment by nikcub

14 hours ago

knee-jerk is that it's weird, but makes sense:

* X will have a total of ~2GW of GPU sometime this year largely not doing much outside of 'grok is this true'

* despite no longer being in vogue with consumer devs Cursor still has a lot of developer data that can assist in building a model

* Cursor have decent enterprise relationships (while for xAI it is ~zero) and that's where the real revenue for llms + agents is

* Cursor are paying retail for tokens and competing against the frontier model co's who are also their suppliers. Not sustainable (hence their in-house composer model).

* Cursor the product covers the gamut from lovable-style prompt-to-app, an IDE, cli and bugbot

* X are using "x bucks" to pay for a potential later acquisition which are arguably overvalued based on the space x IPO hype

Option there to give X a window to make it work, otherwise walk away with a $10B breakup fee for access to it's data

> largely not doing much outside of 'grok is this true'

Hey now, don't forget about it's super important other use, taking innocent photos of people and regenerating them in less clothing and compromising positions.

I'm sad that I even know that.

I wouldn't be surprised if those enterprise relationships evaporate after this acquisition. There's a reason why xAI has zero enterprise customers.

  • > There's a reason why xAI has zero enterprise customers

    I’m curious where you pull these stats from

    • I've had hundreds of AI-powered vendor tools come across my desk as part of my job, and I have yet to see a single one that uses Grok. I'm also not aware of any publicly announced customers for Grok's enterprise offering. The Grok Enterprise website doesn't list any customers.

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  • For Enterprises it's way easier to delist Cursor from the list of used tools than to have a relation with someone known publicly for neofascist aspirations.

    xAI is not, and was not that bad, it's just everybody ignores it for anything serious due to obvious reasons.

You've literally got tools like opencode that are MIT licensed. Most of those points X could do on their own or are things that make this attractive for cursor not X.

e.g. Need developer data? Use some of that spare GPU compute, hand out free top end model coding access for a bit and you'll very rapidly have developer data

>decent enterprise relationships

I guess. 60B worth of "relationships" though?

  • > hand out free top end model coding access for a bit and you'll very rapidly have developer data

    They tried this - grok was free on openrouter for a while

  • But if the developers are to presumably use the model you give out, what data are you going to get from them thats useful?

    • I don't know - was GP speculating that there is value there on a scale to justify 60B no me

Yes I think you're right. Reinforcement learning is extremely compute heavy, which cursor doesn't have. And X.ai doesn't have the coding agent data anthropic/OpenAI has, but does have the compute.

However, one thing in AI is that while the usage goes up extremely quickly, it tends to go down just as fast. I know a lot of companies that are in the process of switching from Cursor to Claude Code, so in 6-12 months I'm not entirely sure of the data quality/quantity.

Also I think it is telling that they are calling them SpaceX not X. The X brand is absolutely toxic, especially in enterprise.

  • > Also I think it is telling that they are calling them SpaceX not X. The X brand is absolutely toxic, especially in enterprise.

    it might not help all that much once it turns into "grok" harness or otherwise associated with elon

I think you're right. Other providers can offer coding subscriptions that use in-house models, and this sets the stage for a Grok coding plan that's built in to Cursor.

$60 billion seems expensive, but it gives them a much better chance at competing in the market than if they started their own harness from scratch.

  • Absolutely no enterprise - I work in enterprise cloud consulting - absolutely no company would trust Grok with their IP compared to Anthropic or OpenAI with Musk’s reputation on how he runs his businesses.

    Anthropic just tolerates the money losing developers who pay $20/$200 for subscriptions.

    • Maybe the play here is a way to sneak sneak Grok into enterprise by calling it Cursor. Or they'll just give up on it and run Cursor's fine-tuned Kimi on Colossus.

    • They'll sign a contract, and the contract will be very clear about whether using user prompts as training data is allowed or not. They're not going to care much about reputation; they'll care about the terms they sign with.

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> Cursor still has a lot of developer data that can assist in building a model

Their composer model is seriously good. I’ve been eyeing a cursor sub just to use it in OpenCode. They have a nice moat here.

> Cursor have decent enterprise relationships (while for xAI it is ~zero)

That has a reason. Those enterprise relationships are almost certainly going to sour at least a bit, if not for Musk‘s toxic image then for his erratic behavior.

  • Yeah, Composer 2 is legitimately so impressive. It is my daily driver right now both on professional and personal projects. I only find myself reaching for 5.3 Codex/GPT 5.4 when exploring a lot of technical documentation or code and for Sonnet/Opus when working on UI. Everything else is Composer.

  • Even if it wasn't for Musk, are these relationships really worth so much? There is a certain value in being on the approved vendor list, but it seems to me that there really isn't a lot of vendor lock-in. I think most people could switch to opencode, claude code or codex pretty easily. Maybe these relationships would be worth a lot if companies signed long-term contracts, but I doubt many did.

  • Just to point it out, Cursor has not made any good models themselves. Composer 2 is Kimi K2.5, and they tried to pass it as their own until people noticed that the api specified it as Kimi.

I think it also represents a bet that in some sense Cursor's model capabilities are resource limited rather than talent limited. If that's true, $60B will end up being a bargain. If not true, well it's an expensive lesson but that's the nature of things.

Forgot that claude is burning good will from it's own capacity constraints, leading to periods of 'dumbness'. It's a catalyst to cause me and others to switch back to cursor if they can get their act together

> despite no longer being in vogue with consumer devs Cursor still has a lot of developer data that can assist in building a model

care to share more about this?

You forgot to consider whether all this is worth $60B.

  • > forgot to consider whether all this is worth $60B

    I see two possibilities:

    (1) SpaceX is paying with stock; and

    (2) the $60bn pay-out is (a) conditional or (b) never going to be exercised—it was a stalking horse for negotiating the $10bn terms, which gives SpaceX everything it actually wants.

    • I think both a) and b) can both be true. We dont know what the contingency is - could be something absurd.

      Also one would definitely offer to pay in stock if they believe it is massively over-valued lmao.

  • $1B to $2B ARR in a few months with projection of $6B ARR by years end. If xAi wants to have it's own tools just like OpenAI and Anthropic, then it's not an unusual move.

    • Extrapolating from a few months to a full year and calling it Annual Recurring Revenue is one of modern startup valuation gimmicks that I cannot not laugh at.

      Sometimes it helps to go back to the basics to understand company performance: money in, money out?