Comment by JohnLocke4
19 hours ago
Sometimes I wonder if innovation in the AI space has stalled and recent progress is just a product of increased compute. Competence is increasing exponentially[1] but I guess it doesn't rule it out completely. I would postulate that a radical architecture shift is needed for the singularity though
[1]https://arxiv.org/html/2503.14499v1 *Source is from March 2025 so make of it what you will.
> that devs get really reliant and even addicted on coding agents
An alternative perspective is, devs highly value coding agents, and are willing to pay more because they're so useful. In other words, the market value of this limited resource is being adjusted to be closer to reality.
It's not limited though there are alternative providers even now, much less when the price goes up. Chinese providers, European ones, local models.
> It's not limited though
Inference is not free, so all providers have a financial limit, and all providers have limited GPU/memory, so there's a physical material limit.
I suggest looking at the profits of these companies (while they scramble to stay competitive).
We are constantly getting smaller and faster models that are close in performance to state of the art from few months prior. And that's due to architectural inventions. I'm sure it takes some time for these inventions to proliferate to frontier and that some might not be applicable there but we are definitely going faster than just due to compute increase.
It will get faster, but there are no singularities in the real world. Except possibly black holes, but we can't even be sure of that.