Comment by mrandish
14 hours ago
> suddenly model quality is back up again.
I agree about the core motivation behind these deals, however I'm skeptical as to how "suddenly" we'll see substantial improvements. Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated.
They're already over-subscribed and waiting for new data centers (and power plants) to come online. I suspect Anthropic will get a modest amount of new capacity right away with more added over coming quarters. These two deals don't change the total amount of AI compute available on planet Earth over the next 18 months. Anthropic parting with high-value equity has now made them the new highest bidder for an already over-bid resource. I suspect the net impact will be Amazon & Google pushing prices even higher on everyone else as they reallocate compute to their new top whale.
> Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated.
I doubt it was idle capacity. But for a chunk of equity in Anthropic I imagine they are willing to deprioritize other, possibly internal, uses. Certainly anything that's not contractually obligated could be on the chopping block.
When people are moving from other models (e.g. GPT, Gemini, etc) the compute that is previously powering that inference now becomes available. Of course, I'm certainly doubtful that Google would break commits and give OpenAI GPUs to Anthropic, but the underlying effect is present and probably sorted out somehow. It's not completely net new compute for the world.