Comment by fc417fc802
18 hours ago
> The correction will be brutal, worse than the Industrial Revolution.
Has it occurred to you that there might not be a correction, and that the outcome would still be brutal, at least on par with the industrial revolution.
It won't get that far.
It's physically impossible to build out the datacenters required for the "AI is actually good and we have mass layoffs" scenario. This Anthropic investment is spurred on because they've already hit a brick wall with capacity.
$40B goes a long way, but not for datacenters where nearly every single component and service is now backordered. Even if you could build the DC, the power connection won't be there.
The current oil crisis just makes all of that even worse.
We pretty much already had the layoffs, at least that's my perception.
The next level of layoffs is probably still 25 years out.
> The next level of layoffs is probably still 25 years out.
Hasn't even been 25 years years since the previous layoffs before the current ones.
There's layoffs, certainly.
But all the economic indicators suggest those are "bad economy" layoffs dressed up as "AI" layoffs to keep the shareholders happy.
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Do you mean as in there will be no happy ending / reset and no another century of prosperity?
I mean as in living through the industrial revolution would have been wild. So whether we have an AI revolution or an AI bubble it's bound to be a roller coaster.
And that's without accounting for the various wars (and resultant economic impacts) that are already in progress. A large part of what drove the meat grinder of WWI was (very approximately) the various actors repeatedly misjudging the overall situation and being overly enthusiastic to try out their shiny new weapons systems. If one or more superpowers decide to have a showdown the only thing that might minimize loss of life this time around is (ironically enough) the rise of autonomous weapons systems. Even in that case as we know from WWII the logical outcome is a decimated economy and manufacturing sector regardless of anything else that might happen.
> minimize loss of life this time around is (ironically enough) the rise of autonomous weapons systems
I think that just means the relative civilian loss of life will increase once again.
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Bubble or revolution - not a dichotomy.
Bubbles like the AI bubble are a game theoretic outcome of a revolution. Many players invest heavily to avoid losing, but as a whole the market over invests. This leads to a bubble.
Imagine you're a typesetter and they just invented computerized printing.