Comment by grafmax
4 hours ago
The tech industry goes through investment phases to produce oligopolies it turns around and enshittifies, parasitizing income off what it has built. Venture capital, acquisitions, acquihires, circular investments - It’s been incestuous for years. The question is whether competition from China’s sophisticated tech sector, which already surpasses the US in many areas, will put a pin in these plans this time round.
I don't agree with the "full cynicism" POV, but I do agree that TechnoChina's existence is a potential paradigm shifter.
But generally speaking, AI is currently pretty competitive and robust. Straightforward business model where users pay money and select the best deal are central. Market power is relatively dispersed.
So... Idk. Nvidia doesn't have competition. But Intel didn't have much competition either, and they drive the Moore's law bus for a long time.
Hardware has been less prone to enshitification. Maybe it's because the demand curve for compute doesn't have natural limits. Drive down price, and demand grows by enough that the total market grows.
There is a giant capital outlay required to produce a competitive model. Joe Schmo can’t jump into this market. Best he could do would be to ingratiate himself to an existing funding cartel. The moat surrounding a handful of market participants is billions of dollars wide.
There’s competition now among the American companies (who have a head start in this space) as always happens as the professional oligopolists try to manufacture their footholds in the new market.
Nor is it cynical to objectively appraise the interests and economics at play. People aren’t playing circular financing games out of the goodness of their hearts.
Nvidia clearly has competition, that's what this deal with Google is about (TPUs).