Comment by JumpCrisscross
1 day ago
> Do the investments make sense if AGI is not less than 10 years away?
They can. If one consolidated the AI industry into a single monopoly, it would probably be profitable. That doesn't mean in its current state it can't succumb to ruionous competition. But the AGI talk seems to be mostly aimed at retail investors and philospher podcasters than institutional capital.
Thing is that distillation is so easy that it would also need large scale regulatory capture to keep smaller competitors out.
What kind of ludicrous statement is this? Any monopoly with viable economics for profit with no threat of competition yields monopoly profits…
> Any monopoly with viable economics for profit with no threat of competition yields monopoly profits
"With viable economics" is the point.
My "ludicrous statement" is a back-of-the-envelope test for whether an industry is nonsense. For comparison, consolidating all of the Pets.com competitors in the late 1990s would not have yielded a profitable company.
Very convenient to leave out Amazon in your back of the envelope test, whose internal metrics were showing a path toward quasi-monopoly profits.
Do you argue in good faith?
There’s a difference between being too early vs being nonsense.
2 replies →
>"...viable economics for profit..."
OP did not include this requirement in their post because doing so would make the claim trivially true.