Comment by cogman10
1 day ago
> The UAE's exit from OPEC represents a win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who in a 2018 address to the U.N. General Assembly accused the organisation of "ripping off the rest of the world" by inflating oil prices.
I can't see how it is actually a win for Trump. OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. They are the ones that have mandated using the dollar as the baseline currency for buying and selling OPEC oil.
The UAE's exit almost certainly signals they are planning on selling oil in other currencies (probably the Chinese yuan). It's also a sign of the UAE wanting out of the partnership it's enjoyed with the US and it's allies.
OPEC has no rules requiring its members to sell oil in US dollars. Iran and Venezuela are members of OPEC.
> OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. They are the ones that have mandated using the dollar as the baseline currency for buying and selling OPEC oil.
Has anyone ever quantified the benefit the U.S. supposedly gets from dollar denominated oil? How does that compare to the cost to the U.S. of paying cartel pricing for oil? Given that the U.S. is a huge oil consumer, surely the cost to it of cartel pricing in oil is huge.
Paul Krugman consistently claims that there is not much benefit from it that would be visible in data. That seems to me consistent with what economists say in general.
If there is benefit it is small. It is mostly symbolic - petrodolar is a symbol of a power and people react to it.
In fairness to the UAE, of all the nations of the world, they're the ones who have lost the most economically speaking in the current unpleasantness.
It's kind of unfair.
If they can recoup some of those losses selling outside the system in Chinese currency, (or even in US currency), I have to imagine that would provide some ameliorative relief. It won't make them whole. They've got a lot of problems right now. But I mean, at least it starts them filling back in the giant hole that everyone else dug for them.
Of all the nations of the world, the one that has lost the most (at least in the short term) is clearly Iran.
On the other hand, from the longer term point of view, it looks like big part of the business model of UAE/Dubai (a safe, luxury place for rich) has been shattered and I don't see it coming back.
In the short term, they might want extra revenue, but in the long term, creating extra tensions with their neighbour can't be good.
It will probably increase total global oil production, which is good for the US consumer (what Trump seems to care about more), but not US producers.
> I can't see how it is actually a win for Trump. OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US.
I mean, I don’t even know if I mean this sarcastically anymore, but are we sure that Trump and the US’ interests are aligned? I think something can be a win for Trump and a loss for the USA.
Majority of US voted for Trump. Maybe not aligned with your version of US, but this is what the majority wanted
Only about 1/3 of registered voters actually voted for him. About 1/3 of registered voters sat that election out.
I believe it to be possible to vote for someone and also not be 100% aligned with every outcome they bring about.
In fact, it may even be possible for this to be more in line with the vision of people who did not vote for Trump than the people who voted for him.
If you look at presidents historically, there are some occasions where the vision they described during the campaign to get votes is not in fact the vision they bring about while governing.
Also - what is your presumption of what my vision of the USA might be?
Nobody wanted a war in Iran, recall how Trump wasnt going to start any new wars? We are in this conflict bc of Zionists - it had nothing to do with US interests at all.
It's a win for Trump in the pretty straightforward sense that it's something he publicly announced he wanted.
Whether he finds the overall effects positive or negative is a different question.