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Comment by netdur

1 day ago

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back

Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen

49 comments

netdur

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Havoc  1 day ago

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

  • nimbius  1 day ago

    exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan.

    OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.

    • ericmay  1 day ago

      > the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld

      Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in Yuan. But we'll just blockade the Straight and seize oil priced in Yuan or something. Who exactly does the UAE need protection from? Iran? China's ally?

      I swear I read this same story over and over again. There's always just an accusation "thing happened, here's how the US is now in a state of being screwed" and there's just never any follow-up or perhaps imagination that the US could just do something too. Hypersonic missiles? US Navy is done for, no possible counter. Iran has drones? Boom. US is done for no way they can spend Patriot missile money on $30,000 Iranian drones. Nope, nothing anyone can do at all. Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Now they are "embarrassed" and "slammed".

      > OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz

      What does this mean?

      [1] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-s...

      24 replies →

  • MattDamonSpace  1 day ago

    “Might” and either way breaking OPEC is good for the West, regardless of their intent

    defecting from the cartel, a tale as old as time

  • elictronic  1 day ago

    Im not concerned with them selling with the yuan as China regularly screws around with its currency. The bigger issue is and other currencies which reduces the US impact.

    On the backside I’m sure there will be lots of fun back door deals around all those interceptors and future anti drone technologies. Today though the US has been the impetus of a lot of the current issues.

  • lotsofpulp  1 day ago

    >UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan

    I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.

    • Cyph0n  1 day ago

      Has the GCC been in an existential state of panic to the point where they’re seriously questioning their relationship with the US any time in the past 30 years?

      2 replies →

    • Eisenstein  1 day ago

      That doesn't mean the warnings were frivolous. There was ultimately a change in course which averted it. How sure are you that will be the case this time?