Comment by roryirvine

"How has the stock market fared in recent years?"

"During the period from 1924 to 1929, there was a general rise in stock exchange values, the average level at the end of 1929 being 18 per cent. above that of 1924. The setback in 1930 has carried the average down to 8 per cent. above the 1924 level, and the decline has been accentuated by the break in Wall Street. The present situation is uncertain, but hopes are entertained of a recovery."

It also knows about Smoot-Hawley, predicting that it will "stimulate home production and expand employment" - and when pressed for potential downsides says only that "consumer prices may rise a little more than otherwise".

We're used to thinking of the inter-war years as a single period, but there were actually two distinct phases: rising optimism during the 1920s, followed by economic rentrenchment and turn towards authoritarianism in the 1930s. The dividing line is fuzzy - somewhere between Kellogg-Briand in 1928 and the first 1931 Sterling crisis.

The pre-1931 cutoff date for this model is probably as close to the end of the optimistic age as it's reasonable to get. I'd love to see a 1936 variant for comparison!