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Comment by huntertwo

12 hours ago

Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked

55 comments

huntertwo

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jmyeet  9 hours ago

It's more complex than that.

Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint to the Red Sea.

The UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) [2], which takes ~1.8Mbpd to the Gulf of Oman. This is beyond the Strait of Hormuz but not that far so technically is still vulnerable to drone attacks (in particular) from Iran if, again, we climb the escalation ladder.

The real issue is American security guarantees to GCC nations have been shown to be an illusion. Heck, the US can't protect their own bases in the region. Also, the US can't protect maritime traffic through the Strait. I mean this is in all seriousness: there is no military solution to this problem short of the use of nuclear weapons.

That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter.

So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel.

A protection racket ceases to be a protection racket if it no longer offers protection.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p...

  • throw0101c  1 hour ago

    > […] or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn.

    Perhaps worth noting that the US is not unscathed in this, as oil/petroleum is a global market that includes the US. US domestic gas pump prices (which is input into everything, including groceries) go up when global oil prices go up. Not to mention things like fertilize (and, as a lot of people suddenly found out, the importance of helium).

    And it's not like the US can practically stop exports, as a lot what the US produces can't be processed by their own refineries (at least at prices palatable to the consumer).

    * https://blog.drillingmaps.com/2025/06/this-is-why-us-cant-us...

    So it's not wrong to say that the world may end up in a global recession, and Asian countries have more acute problems that will hit sooner than the US, but the US will also face those issues if things drag on.

  • ajross  8 hours ago

    > Asian countries in particular are going to burn

    They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships.

    No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in every analysis.

    • JumpCrisscross  3 hours ago

      > escorted by PLAN ships

      This would be a blunder by Beijing. It would involve trotting their ships through half a world of American and allied sensors, only to put an untested-in-blue-waters navy perilously far from nearest bases or support if anything goes wrong.

      I’m not saying the likes of Xi, Putin or Trump couldn’t do it. But it would be an intelligence bonanza for the West, India, Japan and Taiwan.

  • 1293-1827  2 hours ago

    > So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel.

    That is the plan: After decoupling the EU from Russia gas by provoking the Ukraine war, now it is time for the Asian countries to be cut off from gulf oil/gas, so the US fracking projects become economical and the entire "allied" countries depend on the US petrostate.

    It is the only way to preserve US hegemony. Since this long term project is bipartisan, higher gas prices in the US don't matter before the midterm elections.

    The only difference in foreign policy between Trump and Biden is that Trump is more risk taking and often spells out the real intentions, such as "we'll take the oil".

  • DeathArrow  7 hours ago

    >That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter.

    I have the impression that somehow if the world will go into a recession, China will come out ahead. It looks like they either prepared for it or they have enough space to maneuver.

nailer  1 hour ago

Iran started the war. They threatened the USA funded Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis. The US decided to respond but that’s more a surprise they didn’t do something earlier.

  • basilgohar  34 minutes ago

    When your opponent in an argument is this disconnected from reality, that's when you realizing engaging rationally is fruitless. This is just hasbara propaganda and Zionist lies and it has no place in a civil discussion.

  • bdangubic  41 minutes ago

    totally. iran’s navy was advancing towards us east coast, their bombers were getting ready to fly over the atlantic and rain down on us heavily. we were all sitting here scared shitless of iran :)

csomar  4 hours ago

The UAE is over-collateralized. They can sustain such a conflict for a very long time.

grumple  12 hours ago

[flagged]

wdr1  9 hours ago

> Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel?

It's pretty convoluted logic to blame Israel for Iran attacking the UAE.