Comment by make3
13 hours ago
The transformer paper was 9 years ago. 9 years between barely translating alright between two very closely related languages (English and French, huge fraction of shared words because of William the conqueror and cultural proximity etc etc) and what we have now.
The thing is able to code up full pretty competent thousand lines projects in an hour. Even hardcore engineers use it now, as of this year. My senior front end friends already can't find jobs.
You're crazy if you think things won't change dramatically, at the scale of all of society.
https://xkcd.com/605/
It's funny because you're arguing that 1 month showing 1 variable increasing by 1 point is as reliable as 9 years with continual increase among multiple variables by multiple points when trying to extrapolate a trend.