AGI is 100% possible, even if the current breed of transformer-based models are not it, and even if silicon is not it. There's nothing special about human brains that we won't eventually be able to match (and then exceed) in vitro. We are living proof that intelligence can be built out of matter, and that human-scale intelligence can run on 20 watts. It's not a matter of if, but when.
It's not like the machines will ever be free, just the fuel. And it's not like the price of energy will go to zero, just be cheaper. To drive down the price of energy you first need to be taking a large slice of a trillion dollar pie.
If fuel or any other form of energy becomes virtually limitless and free, any form of matter will eventually also be kinda limitless and free. Could take longer than humanity will ever last though.
In the 'short' and current term there is still lots of money to be made in fuel indeed, but advancements in fossil free energy could make a real shift.
AGI is 100% possible, even if the current breed of transformer-based models are not it, and even if silicon is not it. There's nothing special about human brains that we won't eventually be able to match (and then exceed) in vitro. We are living proof that intelligence can be built out of matter, and that human-scale intelligence can run on 20 watts. It's not a matter of if, but when.
There is not even an agreed upon definition for intelligence or for AGI.
There is (eventually) no more profit to be made on energy when energy becomes virtually limitless.
There is (still) a lot of profit to be made on half-baked semi-AGI prospects.
It's not like the machines will ever be free, just the fuel. And it's not like the price of energy will go to zero, just be cheaper. To drive down the price of energy you first need to be taking a large slice of a trillion dollar pie.
If fuel or any other form of energy becomes virtually limitless and free, any form of matter will eventually also be kinda limitless and free. Could take longer than humanity will ever last though.
In the 'short' and current term there is still lots of money to be made in fuel indeed, but advancements in fossil free energy could make a real shift.