The entire industrial revolution was steel replacing human workers. And that is still the backbone of the world today. We are still living the industrial revolution.
Just like the invention of fire happened ages ago, but is still a crucial part of life today.
The mechanism behind engines were fully understood, any experiments with engines were reproducible and measurable. You could get an engine and create schematics by reverse engireening it.
The mechanics of engines was understood at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, and they were fully reproducible: all of which is true of LLMs today. An LLM is a bunch of floating point numbers and simple operations on them, all of which are fully known.
But the way that steam engines emergently transformed heat into work was not understood at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Figuring this out led to an entire new branch of physics, thermodynamics. Figuring out how big next-token predictors give rise to interesting systems is likely to lead to similarly new ideas.
Centuries later, we still learn new tricks for predicting and controlling the chaos of combustion, but those early engines already wrapped it up in a black box that we could more or less ignore.
Steel is almost magic. Stainless steel is beyond magic.
I had a specialization in Chemistry in High School. For some analysis, the fist step is to dissolve everything in boiling Nitric Acid. But stainless steel has Chrome is like a spell of protection, so you must use boiling Hydrochloric Acid instead. I have no idea why. It's just like magic. It may have Nickel, Molybdenum, and other metals, that give it more magical properties.
A few years ago there was a nice post about copying a normal steel alloy for knives to get an equivalent made of stainless steel. You need to reduce the the Carbon content to make it less brittle. And they had to add Vanadium so it keeps the sharpness of the knives. I have no idea why. It's just like magic.
If you have half an hour, it's worth reading, but beware that it has too many technical details that are close to magical https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29696120 | 375 points | Dec 2021 | 108 comments)
Around 1928ish
The entire industrial revolution was steel replacing human workers. And that is still the backbone of the world today. We are still living the industrial revolution.
Just like the invention of fire happened ages ago, but is still a crucial part of life today.
No, it was actually engines.
The mechanism behind engines were fully understood, any experiments with engines were reproducible and measurable. You could get an engine and create schematics by reverse engireening it.
LLMs, useful as they may be, are not that.
The mechanics of engines was understood at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, and they were fully reproducible: all of which is true of LLMs today. An LLM is a bunch of floating point numbers and simple operations on them, all of which are fully known.
But the way that steam engines emergently transformed heat into work was not understood at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Figuring this out led to an entire new branch of physics, thermodynamics. Figuring out how big next-token predictors give rise to interesting systems is likely to lead to similarly new ideas.
See, now that was a good abstraction.
Centuries later, we still learn new tricks for predicting and controlling the chaos of combustion, but those early engines already wrapped it up in a black box that we could more or less ignore.
And what might an engine be made of? And a power plant? And a locomotive? And a ship?
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Famously Andrew Carnegie spent years trying to get the steel to stop talking about goblins.
Steel is almost magic. Stainless steel is beyond magic.
I had a specialization in Chemistry in High School. For some analysis, the fist step is to dissolve everything in boiling Nitric Acid. But stainless steel has Chrome is like a spell of protection, so you must use boiling Hydrochloric Acid instead. I have no idea why. It's just like magic. It may have Nickel, Molybdenum, and other metals, that give it more magical properties.
A few years ago there was a nice post about copying a normal steel alloy for knives to get an equivalent made of stainless steel. You need to reduce the the Carbon content to make it less brittle. And they had to add Vanadium so it keeps the sharpness of the knives. I have no idea why. It's just like magic.
If you have half an hour, it's worth reading, but beware that it has too many technical details that are close to magical https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29696120 | 375 points | Dec 2021 | 108 comments)
1 reply →
Famously Andrew Carnegie dodged the point
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