Comment by surgical_fire
4 hours ago
This is a very low-effort argument.
Humans could understand properties of steel long before they knew how Carbon interacted with Iron. Steel always behaved in a predictable, reproducible way. Empirical experiments with steel usage yielded outputs that could be documented and passed along. You could measure steel for its quality, etc.
The same cannot be said of LLMs. This is not to say they are not useful, this was never the claim of people that point at it's nondeterministic behavior and our lack of understanding of their workings to incorporate them into established processes.
Of course the hype merchants don't really care about any of this. They want to make destructive amounts of money out of it, consequences be damned.
[dead]
No.
> When some normally ductile metal alloys are cooled to relatively low temperatures, they become susceptible to brittle fracture—that is, they experience a ductile-to-brittle transition upon cooling through a critical range of temperatures.
That we did not know how steel behaved under low temperatures in building ship husks does not make it unpredictable. It was an engineering failure.
Unpredictability would be if steel behaved fine in 2 ships, cracked in 3 ships under low temperature for becoming brittle, in another ship it turned into gelatine, and in another it behaved fine but gained a pink color.
>That we did not know how steel behaved under low temperatures in building ship husks does not make it unpredictable.
Yes it does. Or rather, 'steel as used in shipbuilding' is unpredictable (a pedantic distinction). If the properties of steel were fully understood then someone would have identified the brittle fracture concern. They did not, hence the steel-ship system behavior was not predicted. Whether it was /predictable/ is a exercise in hindsight.
>Unpredictability would be if steel behaved fine in 2 ships, cracked in 3 ships under low pressure for becoming brittle, in another ship it turned into gelatine, and in another it behaved fine but gained a pink color.
That's not how LLMs work either. If you could control all the parameters that go into training and using an LLM, they would be predictable in the same sense (in theory, given enough time to analyze inputs/outputs given fixed process parameters).
Also steel does in fact behave probabilistically, for example in the distribution of assumed pre-existing flaw sizes in castings which are very important for the structural performance. Not all liberty ships cracked.