Comment by fouc
8 hours ago
Seems like HW3 has been pretty good since FSD v12.3+ came out.
If we describe HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD, then HW3 is probably 95% of the way.
Though approaching 100% (maybe 2x the human standard) is going to be exponentially harder to get to.
> HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD
If we describe current LLMs 99% of the way to AGI and full sentience then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA was probably 90% of the way.
I'm reminded of the adage about getting 80% of the way through shipping a product, and then doing the other 80%...
Yeah that's what I was referring to, the last 10% takes 90% of the time. Or the difficulty of getting from five 9s to nine 9s.
In this case the final 1% is 200x harder than getting to the initial 95%.
I live in a suburban area in a cold climate. Based on what I've seen of "FSD," it's essentially unusable on most of the roads near me, and doubly so in winter. This is even true on larger highways/freeways, as when snow falls the camera systems can't see the lane markings. Not to mention the fact that some of those roads are so badly maintained that the lane markings are faint to nonexistent.
I don't think Tesla can honestly claim 99%, or 95%, or even 50% of the way to FSD until they solve these issues. Until they do, it's just a fun toy. After all, years ago they were claiming that you'd be able to "summon" a Tesla sans driver from LA to NYC. What happens if there's a winter storm on the way?
it is not even a fun toy because fun toys are fun for kids and no sane person would use FSD wirh a kid in a car