Comment by avadodin

A poor person paying $5.00 for an odds–adjusted $4.99 lottery ticket a couple dozen times in their life is likely not making her worst investment. And if she does win, it is hard to argue against the wisdom of it.

The gamblers, however, will see a future where they have paid $5.00 for a $0.03 ticket and still won the lottery a couple dozen times in a row because they deserve it so they will buy all tickets they can right now ending with 3 —because that's important.

Even when you think you have a legitimate insight so the book is mispriced for your actual odds, you should consider the risk.

Risk management is foremost.

What happens if I lose the almost certainly sure bet?

This may come as a surprise to you, but in the real world, there are not few people whose business is making you think you have an edge on your "long shot".