Comment by MostlyStable
19 hours ago
According to the resolution criteria, I would say that that market should trade much much higher than OP's hypothetical market. Any governmental agency stating that "Extraterrestrial life exists" would count. NASA/Seti finding evidence of algae on an exo planet or Io or something counts.
I agree, it needs to be more specific. Like:
"NASA, ESA, and Roscosmos all confirm definitive concrete proof, and publish this proof, for the presence of organisms, or technology created by organisms, which originated from outside Earth's atmosphere, and was present within Earth's hill sphere at some point since 1900."
Which has already happened. Clinton basically announced the discovery of life on mars back in the 90s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHhZQWAtWyQ
Related fun-fact:
This real announcement (with some edited visuals to make it look like he was delivering it inside the White House press room) was used in the movie Contact to seem related to the more extraordinary discovery of alien intelligence that was portrayed in that movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obrBARvWtiA
The White House objected to this use at the time, but never took any sort of legal action to have it removed or anything AFAIK.
A visionary