Please be specific because outside of anecdotal blog posts by people who don’t know what they’re talking about it’s not true. Look at scaling laws, composite benchmarks from the epoch capability index, nothing at all suggests “model progress is slowing down”
Model progress at spitting out unhallucinated facts is slowing down hard. Model progress at solving hard math challenges/programming tasks doesn't seem to be slowing down that I can tell.
Qwen3.6 9B is as good as GPT-4o and runs on my M2 MacBook Air. Models are getting stronger and less costly at the same time, but these are somewhat separate branches of research. Frontier labs are spending more because they are still getting marginal returns and there is more capacity to spend than there was a year ago.
Please be specific because outside of anecdotal blog posts by people who don’t know what they’re talking about it’s not true. Look at scaling laws, composite benchmarks from the epoch capability index, nothing at all suggests “model progress is slowing down”
Model progress at spitting out unhallucinated facts is slowing down hard. Model progress at solving hard math challenges/programming tasks doesn't seem to be slowing down that I can tell.
Which indications are that?
The cost factors on the new models compared to the old models.
Qwen3.6 9B is as good as GPT-4o and runs on my M2 MacBook Air. Models are getting stronger and less costly at the same time, but these are somewhat separate branches of research. Frontier labs are spending more because they are still getting marginal returns and there is more capacity to spend than there was a year ago.
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Cost for a specific level of performance decreases 10x per year, this has been a pretty consistent property for awhile now.
You are mixing cost and progress. It’s not because it’s more and more expensive that progress is slowing down by itself.
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Investment dollars.
Source for that claim?
Nobody is releasing NEW models
…not only is this not true but it also doesn’t matter. Why would this indicate performance saturating?
What constitutes a NEW model for the purposes of calculating progress?
The standard networking connection has been called “Ethernet” for more than thirty years, so networking has stagnated, right?
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What? DeepSeekV3 just came out and is incredible for the price. Mythos is also half-released.
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