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Comment by nicoburns

2 hours ago

The cost factors on the new models compared to the old models.

Qwen3.6 9B is as good as GPT-4o and runs on my M2 MacBook Air. Models are getting stronger and less costly at the same time, but these are somewhat separate branches of research. Frontier labs are spending more because they are still getting marginal returns and there is more capacity to spend than there was a year ago.

  • Qwen 3.6 9B doesn't exist.

    If you meant 3.5 9B and you truly believe it's as good as 4o then I can only assume you have a very basic use case.

Cost for a specific level of performance decreases 10x per year, this has been a pretty consistent property for awhile now.

You are mixing cost and progress. It’s not because it’s more and more expensive that progress is slowing down by itself.

  • They are intrinsically linked beyond a certain point. If we're making progress but costs are spiraling exponentially then it stands to reason that we will soon reach a point where we can no longer afford the increasing costs and thus progress will slow.

    (barring some breakthrough that reduces costs, which of course may happen, but for which recent model improvements are not strong evidence of)