Comment by daishi55
2 hours ago
> over-hiring
For how long should you be allowed to use this excuse? It’s nearly 5 years since the peak of COVID hiring. What’s an acceptable limit - 10 years? Of course at that point you can just switch over to outsourcing and “stupid MBAs”, the other two of Reddit’s favorite scapegoats. I find a lot of the AI skepticism to be totally unfalsifiable.
> I find a lot of the AI skepticism to be totally unfalsifiable.
A lot of the discourse around AI in general is unfalsifiable. It's just a bunch of people "predicting" the future. Seems smarter to just avoid making assumptions about it at this point.
And the same can be said for AI exuberance.
Yes, LLMs are a great technology. Yes, we will probably all use them all the time in 20 years. No, we don't know how we will use them (to generate cat memes or to cure cancer) in 20 years time.
Especially for software developers it looks increasingly that after huge turmoil it's likely we will need +/- the same number of developers in the world.
> Especially for software developers it looks increasingly that after huge turmoil it's likely we will need +/- the same number of developers in the world.
what exactly are you basing this opinion on? All I am seeing personally across multiple projects I am working on and other friends at other places is that downsizing is either begun or is planned (to exclude from here all the “public” layoffs we see on the news). Given how most business operate in the USA I think most of “AI strategies” are “we can do same with -40% staff” vs. “we can do XX% more work with same staff.”