Comment by regularfry

Not only that! First mover advantage is mostly bunk. Even if none of what you say was true, valuing this on a horizon far enough out to solve all the technical problems gives a lot of space for competitors to emerge. So even if the idea was both technically and financially workable, there is no guarantee that an investment in SpaceX specifically would be the right move over the same evaluation term as the tech will take to play out. It only makes sense from a speculative angle because you know that if they present any more concrete excuse to believe that the tech works, the price will temporarily go through the roof.