Comment by ngruhn
13 hours ago
> I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games
I'm trying to do that too but what the hell is going on with Putin? Why does he continue to engage in this ridiculously expensive war? I don't see any evil genius explanation anymore. It just seems like a mix of sunk-cost-fallacy and save-face.
I think many geopolitical decisions are actually based in irrational emotions of a hand full of people.
Germany, Japan, Russia, Great Britain, and the United States all within the last 125 years… The headshot was from within mainly self-inflicted.
I think Putin was and remains a rational actor, I know a lot of how that war is understood in the west is colored by a very effective propaganda campaign that I don’t have the time nor energy to counter.
But I will say, in a very broad stroke, we’re heading for a great power conflict and the US has two primary factions on foreign policy; the primacists vs the restrainers, both want to take on China (contain with war) but the primicits want to topple Iran first and set up Israel as a regional hegemony where the restrainers want to build up locally first. China knows this and Russia is a junior partner / quasi vassal state to China. China lacks modern war fighting experience which the Russian Ukraine war has been very helpful in fixing. Yes it’s very expensive, but so is losing a great powers conflict.
Is your claim that Russia is continuing to fight Ukraine as a favour to china in order that china get information on how modern war is fought and intel on western capabilities?
While it is undoubtedly true that china is learning everything it can from this conflict, and that russia is at least a little subservient to china, they aren't so subservient for this explanation to make sense.
He wants enlarge the imperium, get back what he feels was taken from the Russia - the territory they could control and now they cant.