Comment by hansmayer
5 hours ago
> all evidence points to AI bringing at least 10-20% more productivity.
No, actually all evidence points exactly to a ~20% slowdown> https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o...
The "evidence" that you think about is probably that dopamine hit you felt when the shit-generator spat out a complete half-finished react app. But that's not evidence of increased productivity, unless we now measure productivity by the size of the codebase bloat.
Newer evidence from same group invalidates the outdated claim https://metr.org/blog/2026-05-11-ai-usage-survey/
No it doesn't - that data is self-reported, and the 2025 study explicitly compares _against_ self-reported data.
Granted, I agree models have improved since then, but still.
> Importantly, survey results are not necessarily grounded in reality. There are reasons to be skeptical of people’s responses to counterfactual questions such as about AI’s effect on productivity — for instance, our study in early 2025 found that people overestimated AI’s effect on their time spent on tasks by 40 percentage points on average.
- your linked study
> No, actually all evidence points exactly to a ~20% slowdown>
It contradicts this
1 reply →