Comment by bluGill
1 day ago
When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US.
The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.
I don't think international trade is so stable that any shift would imply equal and opposite shifts in trade. For example it looks like Brazil's production is up 5% while China's overall usage may be down 6%.
Do you think China's new demand on Brazil could be handled by Brazil with previously idle capacity?
It'll know however Brazil has been greatly expanding how much farming they've been are able to do in recent years. I wouldn't call that idle capacity because it never was used and it never was intended to be used in previous years but now they're turning what previously was wild land - forests and such into farmland
I think these changes were mostly from earlier factors but will pressure the prices of soybeans in the opposite direction from the wheat shortage which isn't very good (for soy bean farmers) given the risk that higher fertilizer costs isn't adequately reflected at the next harvest time.
Soybeans are a pretty stellar food for protein per calorie.
And to stop misinformation in its tracks:
> A March 2021 meta-analysis published in Reproductive Toxicology concluded that neither soy protein nor isoflavone intake significantly affects reproductive hormone levels in men. Analyzing data from 41 studies and 1,753 participants, the researchers found no statistically significant effects on testosterone or estrogen regardless of intake dose or duration.
so Gemini says, link - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33383165/
Downvoted even with a reputable link lol. It’s obviously true though. If soybeans could even semi-reliably affect hormone levels in either direction, trannies would be all over them.
some other options than buying american:
- tap into a reserve, like buying from china itself - buy from somebody else who grows their industry - consume less and produce less of the downstream item - swap to an alternative input, eg. canola
its a national security issue to take dependencies on imports to or exports from america now. if a nation does, it will be part of trade negotiation, where the benefit from the US outweighs the liability.
If you havent watched the Carney Davos speech, its worth a watch or a rewatch - this is how the world is thinking about US trade. Significantly risky. I think the US soy price still has room to go down, as other countries take over the production, and have favoured nation agreements with each other
idk if its really a bif deal though, farmers grow soy because its good for their fields, and getting to sell it is an extra bonus. if a farmer is dependent on selling the soy, they probably arent doing so well overall
Yes, with one change.
If you can sell to 3 markets, you can negotiate. If one stops buying from you, now you only have 2 markets. And they each know that you can't sell to the other, regardless of demand.
The less favourable your selling position, typically the less you get...