Comment by weakfish

4 hours ago

Not really? I mean, the original study says this, in essence:

1. Developers _self_ report a 1.5-2x increase in productivity 2. Empirical measurements show 20% slowdown

Now, that study is from 2025, so it may be outdated.

The study you linked and claim contradicts the 20% slowdown is only _self reported_ data, which the original study proves is unreliable and overestimates productivity.

In fact, the study _you linked_ says this:

> In 2 of these 7 cases we were able to view public outputs from the work completed using AI. We are confident that in both cases the participants are overstating their change in value produced as we understand it; at least, the enormously more valuable work is not externally visible.

> In 2 other cases, we are somewhat suspicious of large changes in the value of work produced because qualitative claims do not match our intuitive sense of agent capabilities.

> There is 1 instance where our best sense is that the respondent does indeed have agents doing an impressive quantity of productive work, although we suspect that this work is better captured by improved speed or quantity of output, not improved value of output.

> In the remaining 2 cases we lack sufficient qualitative information to meaningfully interpret.