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Comment by solenoid0937

9 hours ago

> As an example, imagine that you are a moderator on a forum and you suspect that a new face is actually a sockpuppet of a user you banned the day prior. You check the IP logs, and despite using different Mullvad servers, both accounts resolve to the overlapping float ranges 0.4334 - 0.4428 and 0.4358 - 0.4423. This gives you a >99% chance that they are the same person.

This sounds like how I'd design a VPN if I were an intelligence agency.

Why? If I was an intelligence agency and designing a VPN I would simply log all the IPs connecting to my VPN and not rely on statistics on exit nodes to identify the users, even more so because they rely on the users to pick different servers.

Yeah I'm sure one day it will transpire Cloudflare is affliated with intelligence agencies too. The solution to a "sudden DDoS" is to put their website behind Cloudflare. Wonder who can do those sudden attacks?

  • That’s been my pet theory from day 1, and not because of DDoS. Simply because they are the SSL terminator for most of the internet and can see anything going on in cleartext (and I’ve seen them protecting some shady stuff)

    I recall a PRISM slide showing the diagram of Google and the public internet, with a big arrow on GFE saying, quote, “SSL added and removed here! :-)”

    If NSA aren’t installed at Cloudflare, I wonder what they are even doing.

    • > I’ve seen them protecting some shady stuff

      Hmm do we want them to decide what stuff is shady and what isn't?

      We're already allowing payment processors to do that and it's not good.

    • It's within the realm of possibility that NSA is collecting data with Cloudflare's consent. It seems unlikely that Cloudflare would jeopardize their entire business model over it. Unlike other companies in the leaked NSA slides that participated in PRISM, Cloudflare would face a near-total loss of customers. Their entire value proposition is being an unobtrusive traffic intermediary.

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  • I don’t see how they couldn’t be. Either on purpose, secretly my coercion, or secretly without their own knowledge. It’s so valuable

  • Yeah, their origin is a story of absolute incredible luck. Cloudflare came out of nowhere and suddenly massive sites with huge user bases around the world, including places like 4chan, were getting DDoSed. Then they immediately announce that they transitioned to Cloudflare. Hell of a lucky time to make a company that the entire internet suddenly became absolutely dependent on.

    The funny thing about that era is you knew they started using Cloudflare because they went from stable with constant uptime to going down and showing a Cloudflare banner randomly all the time for a good year or so. They ran worse with Cloudflare than they did while they were allegedly getting DDoSed. The whole company glows, as the late great HN commenter Terry Davis would've said.

    • Am i the only one that actually remembers this time period? It wasn’t that long ago. The confidence of your assertion is completely misplaced. I remember exactly where i was when I first read about CF, on launch day. DDoS attacks were CERTAINLY a big issue before Cloudflare came along. A whole lot of script kiddie energy was poured into them. LHC? Slowloris? IRC C2? This wasn’t niche stuff. That’s why I remember the CF launch, because I and everyone else knew that it was a big deal, given what the landscape had been for quite some time. Sorry if you personally didn’t have your finger on the pulse for whatever reason, but this was far from a niche issue, even for big sites / usual targets like 4chan.

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    • > as the late great HN commenter Terry Davis would've said.

      Oh my god, this is how & when I realize that Terry Davis (Rest in peace) used to use Hackernews too: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10061171 (From this comment written by terry):

      "I wrote all the code from scratch, including a 20,000 line of code compiler that makes x86_64 machine code from HolyC or Asm and operates AOT and JIT.

      My JIT mode is not interpreted. It optimizes and compiles to x86_64 machine code.

      I was chosen by God because I am the best programmer on the planet and God boosted my IQ with divine intellect." -Terry A Davis.

  • > Wonder who can do those sudden attacks?

    Anyone with a few crypto currencies in their wallet that can click a button on any of the booter services with botnets for hire.

Well there is still the small detail of them not storing any logs.

This is a massive issue in my view, it allows correlation across multiple VPNs exit nodes, but that’s it. It doesn’t allow to identify you automatically. It does significantly lower the bars for identifying you though, but the requirements are still high.

Hopefully they fix this soon.

I can’t believe this type of “let’s make it a hash or something sensitive” still happen, and at mullvad, of all places. Why not randomise it simply?

  • > It does significantly lower the bars for identifying you though, but the requirements are still high

    If you squint a bit, it looks a lot like a "Nobody But US" (NOBUS[1]) scheme. A few more identifying bits could tip the scale for party that has a whole host of other bits on a list of suspects, without being useful to most other people.

    1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOBUS

    • Then why complicate it by being publicly insecure? If Mullvad were wanting to defeat anonymity, they could simply log the traffic metadata while falsely advertising they aren't.

      Their ads on San Francisco's public transit are good.

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    • You definitely need glasses then.

      Let me specify: The user must have entered his data on one site which the attacker has control of. That is a high bar still.

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Mullvad predates the Snowden leaks by several years and was not mentioned anywhere in them.

Sure, there are other intelligence agencies, but that's the one I'd be the most worried about. Since either they run it, or they would know of it and want to emulate the idea, or know of it and have access to it from the partner agency running it. Or they are not a threat to me.

There's also the issue of no publicly known cases where someone that used Mullvad being deanonymized through the VPN but instead being discovered through some other opsec failure. If an intelligence agency has this capability they have been sitting on it for almost 2 decades without making use of the data. Hard to believe.

  • Intelligence agencies use parallel construction to disguise their real methods. Further, more sophisticated methods are reserved for bigger targets. Intelligence agencies aren't running around discussing their methods publicly, most intelligence agency work doesn't result in public criminal charges.

  • > Mullvad predates the Snowden leaks by several years and was not mentioned anywhere in them.

    Wow, I didn't realize Mullvad was this old! Then again, maybe they weren't popular enough back then for intelligence agencies to target them? For instance, Mullvad kinda rode WireGuard's popularity wave by being the first(?) VPN provider to implement the protocol. Big ads on billboards came even later. So maybe they only became a target in recent years?

In this particular case I'm quite sure it's not the case. Good arguments in the other comments (why not just log more if that's the case), but I also happen to know a little bit about the workings of Mullvad (I live in Gothenburg where they're from...)

> This sounds like how I'd design a VPN if I were an intelligence agency.

So does your comment...

> how I'd design a VPN if I were an intelligence agency

I think its safe to assume that intelligence agencies have other options available to them, such as country-wide timing attacks.

Makes you wonder...

  • Every now and then there are articles like this one about something that Mullvad may or may not be able to do better, and there are always comments about whether they're an intelligence front.

    I don't know the answer, but there are two ways to take it:

    1. Submarining to destroy confidence in an actually trustworthy, decent VPN company

    2. They're an intelligence front.

    For me, Mullvad have the appearance of the greatest likelihood of being legit since they're not aggressively pushing their product with lies and fear mongering. That gels with my vibe. If they're an intelligence front, well, most VPNs probably are as well, so I'm no worse off.

    Luckily I'm not doing anything that would get me in the kind of trouble for which multi-jurisdictional cooperation is worthwhile.

    • You'll find comments accusing anything of being an intelligence front on internet message boards. I agree with you that public evidence is overwhelmingly in favor that Mullvad is earnestly trying to protect privacy.