Comment by treis
3 days ago
I disagree that this is well written. It's a long and meandering where unchallengeable anecdotes build up to sweeping narrative that doesn't add up.
Iran has gone from a peak of power and it's proxies pulled off the biggest attack against Israel in decades. Three years later most of the leadership involved is dead, their power is at a nadir, and Israel has re-established itself as the dominant power.
That Iran isn't totally incapable of fighting back and hasn't capitulated isn't much of a feather in their cap.
Technology wise the West has a string of victories. SpaceX, AI, Waymo, and Apple are leaps and bounds ahead of any Chinese competitors.
Nothing has changed. The US honest to goodness lost a war 50 years ago and continued to dominate. Not to mention Iraq/Afghanistan. Iran being something less than a perfect and clean victory doesn't fundamentally change anything.
What has changed is that the US's failure in Iran has directly impacted many of its former allies all at once, and the current administration clearly shows that it doesn't care about them at all.
This lack of consideration will lead to significantly less favorable trading for all of the businesses you listed, regardless of their current prowess.
Replace Iran with Iraq and this was all true 25 years ago. And that was an actual failure.
Fundamentally nothing has changed about the world or the relationship between the US and its allies. Once Trump is replaced by someone closer to European social values and less of an asshole the temperature will change. Just like it did from Bush to Obama.
Can you really look yourself in the mirror and say with a straight face that fundamentally nothing has changed about the relationship between the US and its allies? Do you really think Europeans will be quick to forgive the wrongs of this administration? They’ve lost faith in our political system and will, rightfully so, do everything in their power to disentangle with us. The problem with your theory is that they know even if Trump is replaced by someone closer to European social values, our electorate could just as easily completely reverse course in 4 years. It literally already happened. Bush never threatened to annex European territory with military force as far as I can tell. But I understand why in these chaotic times you’d want to gravitate towards hopeful fictions.
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