Comment by energy123
14 hours ago
It's not that easy to assess diminishing returns with saturated benchmarks where asymptoting to 100% is mathematically baked in. I could point to the number of Erdos proofs being solved by AI going from 0 to many very recently as evidence for acceleration.
That is not evidence of acceleration, just of some measurable improvement compared to a previous model. After all, humans have made these breakthroughs since before recorded history—that never by itself implied accelerating intelligence.
What would be evidence of acceleration? What would be evidence of diminishing returns? Both questions are hard to answer because it's difficult to avoid constructing a metric where the conclusion is already baked in.