Comment by tsimionescu
12 hours ago
The argument sounds nice, but it's just wrong. It only works if most processes you're going to encounter that you know nothing about happen to be Lindy processes. If most processes happening around you that you know nothing about are not of that type, then the argument fails.
I understood it as if you know absolutely nothing about a process, your best guess is that it's half done.
I don't even think there are any "genuine" Lindy processes. What would those look like? Are they always half done?