Much of the post-WW2 American-led world order was founded partially on the United States using its military to keep international waters open. It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense. The military might is there, but this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into and did not plan accordingly. (and does not have the will or public support to do so)
The baffling part of this is that nearly everyone was aware that Iran could close the straight if pressed hard enough. The fact that this outcome is surprising represents a very loud and public failure on the administration's part.
I don't know enough about the current state of naval warfare but I've assumed this is related to the asymmetry that's emerged around protecting capital warships, especially in the scenario of a very narrow strait and a long enemy-controlled coastline. They can shoot relatively low-cost, short-range guided missiles from anywhere along the coast. Even if a warship stops the vast majority of them, only one has to get through to sink a multi-billion dollar ship that takes a decade to replace.
There are now similar asymmetries emerging across war-fighting and even though warships can still be effective (and less vulnerable) in other scenarios, this specific one seems especially bad. The other factor is that most of what ships carry through the straight isn't going directly to the U.S. so the impact on the U.S. is mostly secondary, reducing the risk the U.S. is willing to take. Of course, all this was known beforehand by military strategists which makes this all look even worse for the U.S. administration.
Modern US surface warships such as the DDG-52 Arleigh Burke class are pretty survivable. The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything. And a single hit would be highly unlikely to sink such as vessel: we're not talking about something like the Russian Moskva cruiser that was crewed by drunks and had inoperative defensive systems.
The real problem is that there are too few such vessels to sustain convoy escort operations. Each destroyer can only provide area air defense for a handful of merchant vessels, and they can only stay on station for a few days at a time before they have to cycle out to refuel, rearm, and conduct critical maintenance. Some of the key munitions also appear to running low. And it appears that the other Gulf states are refusing to allow use of their facilities over fears of Iranian retaliation.
Other countries generally aren't really in a position to assist as part of a coalition either. They either don't have sufficiently capable warships at all, or lack the logistics train to sustain them in the Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman region. After the Cold War a lot of countries like the UK and Germany essentially dismantled their navies so that they now exist only as government jobs programs.
> I don't know enough about the current state of naval warfare but I've assumed this is related to the asymmetry that's emerged around protecting capital warships, especially in the scenario of a very narrow strait and a long enemy-controlled coastline.
It's not the billion-dollar warships that transport oil, it's the much more fragile and unarmed tankers.
Even if the US Navy begins full escort duty, it can't remain on-station forever. What are shippers to do afterwards? One drone strike might cause a tanker to have a very bad day, yet it's extremely difficult to so permanently degrade an entire country that they become incapable of launching sporadic attacks.
Ultimately, the status of the Strait must be settled diplomatically, and the US and Iran are each betting that the other side will blink first.
All of this was well known before the war though. The idea that navy is incredibly vulnerable modern anti-ship defenses has been a major consideration in the Taiwan situation for at least a decade (mostly in relation to the ability of the US navy to even operate in the area in a war). More recently, Ukraine has made a great show of sinking navy ships with cheap unmanned surface vehicles
Back in WWII you could sail your navy up a river and expect positive results. In the 21st century, the idea of attacking an enemy-held strait with navy doesn't work
suppose one has N independently developed interception systems (from detection till physical interception attempt), each with an intercept success rate of 90%.
a rudimentary calculation then gives the probability of hitting (not sinking) the ship as 0.1^N per launched missile; so it seems that given enough budget to spend on independently developed missile interception systems allows to drive down the penetration success rate arbitrarily.
Multi-billion sounds like $ 10^10; so assuming an attacker can launch say a million missile attempts then the statistical loss would be 0.1^N * 10^10 * 10^6; so the statistical loss can be driven down arbitrarily say to $ 1 by developing ~ 16 independent interception systems.
16 independently developed intercept systems doesn't sound like unobtainium for a vested nuclear power.
Cheap drones taking out an AWACS is a great example of this. The US has only 16 of these and it will cost $700 million to replace, and was taken out by a drone that probably cost less than your car.
The US military is also just less powerful than it was at its peak at the end of the Cold War as well.
Still the most powerful navy in the world, but spread increasingly thin (turns out "the whole world" is quite a big place).
This is no longer Reagan's (almost) 600 ship navy, and projecting power halfway round the world is no mean feat when your opponent can lob missiles and drones at you from their back garden
> United States using its military to keep international waters open
Being a little pedantic, as per my knowledge, the Strait of Hormuz is not “international waters”. It’s territorial waters belonging to Iran and Oman. AFAIK, Iran hasn’t ratified UNCLOS either, and claims it is not subject to it.
> It’s territorial waters belonging to Iran and Oman.
The trick is that it's still an 'international strait', or a segment of water that forms the only connection between two areas of high seas -- in this case the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The principle of freedom of navigation establishes that innocent traffic (civilian traffic, and even warships in peacetime) have a right to use the strait to go from one body of international water to the other.
Iran may claim that it doesn't have to abide by that right, but international law is never self-executing. One question to be resolved by this war is whether Iran will ultimately recognize the right to navigation in any settlement (and then choose to abide by said settlement).
If Iran doesn't want to observe the terms of the UNCLOS (regardless of whether they have ratified it or not) then their territorial waters claims revert to the older 3NM limit. They can't have it both ways. Of course, in practice those legalisms don't matter without a means of enforcement.
All straits other than the Bosporus (which has some additional rights to Turkey given the proximity to a major city) are international waters for the purposes of free transit, under the Montreux Convention.
The power wasn't there in the first place if the administration couldn't defend Hormuz. It's all the same capital and resources that prior administrations had. The actual blunder was exposing that weakness to the world. We could have done nothing and reputation would've carried the idea that we could.
Not necessarily. It's a matter of risk. How many resources do we want to commit? Are we comfortable putting a large number of troops in Iran? Are we comfortable with major losses as we try to enforce against drones and mines?
It's not that I think any of these things are wise, but this is part of the risk calculus you make when you decide to wage war. It's more like a debate: if you don't have a plan for uncomfortable questions you're a poor debater. The US has the physical means to prevent the closure, but I think it's quite clear that this administration ignored known risks and acted recklessly. And more importantly, apparently had very little contingency planning if things didn't go their way.
Seems like piracy is more about the land than the sea. I can't think of any major american military action against piracy aside from actions against somali terrorists. Seems piracy as it was known historically died out as the old historic pirate havens of say Tortuga or Outer Banks went from places of anarchy to places that were controlled by some government in some capacity. And that is exactly where we see the somali piracy today: here is a state that is unable to govern its land mass and thus there is piracy, even with the american navy directly taking action against this piracy. Seemingly this has nothing to do with the american navy at all, even though that is supposedly one of its mandates and it takes actions in the spirit of advancing these anti piracy goals. The fundamentals of why piracy does and doesn't occur don't really change. It seems it comes down to government capacity on land, not from projecting naval power.
The gamble, which was certainly egged on by Israel, was that two stars aligned and it was high time to strike Iran.
The first star was intense civilian unrest, the months leading up to the strikes was marked by riots and protests.
The second star was the meeting of Iran's top brass in one spot at one time, both of which Israel knew about.
It was almost certainly sold to Trump as a domino event, where the US would blow the head off and the people of Iran would ravage the body. On paper it looks clean, and certainly he was riding on a high after the swift coup in Venezuela.
Of course though, that did not happen, and now he had to go to China to beg under a thin veil for them to pressure Iran to back off. Trump rolled a critical failure on what appeared to be a moderate-low risk attempt.
Ironically the US has never ratified UNCLOS. The American professed interest in maintaining right of passage does not appear to require them to be held to the same standards.
Also the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait not international waters. The entire strait lies within Iranian and Omani waters. Frankly it's a bit absurd to complain that your ships can't transit a country's waters while you bomb them.
The post-WW2 American-led world order was, at times, a shared world order between the United States and Soviet Union. Free trade, perhaps, was "enforced" by the United States Navy but that was for the benefit of all nations and it seems to me to have been something pretty widely understood.
If the US military fails to keep international waters open, that harms everyone, and everyone more so than the United States. There's this continued misunderstanding that America did this or that, or securing global shipping is for America to do, or what have you. But you can't have your cake and eat it too here. If you accept American hegemony of the seas and the associated benefits, you have to also accept American action in places like Iran. It's a package deal - you get both or neither. There seems to be a misunderstanding about that, I hope it's a little more clear now.
> It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense.
To this second point, the US can just keep the Strait closed. No big deal. It isn't really possible for Iran to forcibly win here because while the US has higher gas prices, we're the #1 oil and gas market and we can stomach the pain much longer less you get complaints from MAGA/far-left anti-American types. Iran would simply watch their entire economy collapse, while Americans are paying a couple bucks more for cheeseburgers and milkshakes.
But the perspective that the US would be defeated is the incorrect one. In fact, what would be defeated here is that very American-led world order. For the US to be defeated here, as so many seem to rejoice at the prospect of, you would also lose American naval power and security, and instead each and every country would have to spend a lot more human capital and treasure to secure their own shipping and trade arrangements, because there would be no America to come help and save the day. No more NATO. No more caring about Taiwan or Ukraine (remember Iran helps Russians kill Ukrainians?) or getting involved in expeditionary affairs. You can not separate these things. Iran happens for the same reason NATO happens. The world will be much more transactional - pay to play and a global American security tax. A scenario like the one in Iran, in which a genocidal dictatorship that is all to happy to steal tribute from weaker nations simply becomes the norm, if not simply more common, and the EU or China or whoever can deal with it.
So I'd say, be careful to join other isolationists and smugly cheer for the US to "lose" to Iran, and in which case you can expect much worse as the US says "forget it" and only seeks to protect its own vital interests without regard to the rest of the world - the Trumpian and far left view which is a marriage of convenience.
The administration knew this very well. They've been swinging the markets wildly and intentionally several times and they and their buddies have made billions from it.
> this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into
All of the advisors in the room with Trump (Cheung, Caine, etc.) told him explicitly after the meeting with Netanyahu that attacking Iran was a horrible idea. His military advisors told him that Strait closure was the most obvious consequence.
The root cause here, is that all decisions are being made by a single biological neural network with a really high error rate, which is increasing.
1 - A win for the shareholders of U.S. oil companies, close to half of which aren’t even Americans, but not a win for Americans even on a purely financial basis given that they are paying more for gas and food.
2 - China hasn’t lost its source of gas and oil. They have more reserves than the rest of the world put together and can outlast every other country, and they’re still getting shipments.
3 - The exact opposite of reality. Iran’s potential to acquire nuclear weapons was one of their biggest dangers for the rest of the world. But with this the U.S. has given Iran a new actual power that had been conjectured but never realized. Control over 20% of the world’s fuel supply and large percentages of other critical raw materials.
Even if this analysis were accurate, I would feel much better if the administration had intentionally gone this route rather than accidentally blundering into it.
You don’t permanently remove 20% of the worlds oil, 30% of the fertilizer while having a incredibly financialized economy and somehow get on the other side of it healthy and rich.
For one, this would be the end of the Petrodollar and with it the ability to have huge trade deficits siphoning more than 1 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world in exchange for fancy green paper.
3 - Iran moderates are neutralized, so hardcore fanatics from IRGC take over. Loss for literally everybody.
Otherwise, 1) and 2) are true, Europe is bleeding through the nose with buying US oil and depending on its current antagonist, not smart long term situation that we need to move away asap.
Somebody in US government is making literal billions on shorts and various trade deals just before major announcements keep happening, those are not that hard to see in markets. Current top public bet on this is trumps family and his close coworkers, and their families. If you ever want a witch hunt on traitors and collaborators against US citizens and society, smart up, forget Wall street and just follow those money very directly to culprits.
Why is everyone obsessed with US military when the news seems to be Bitcoin? Just like that the US Dollar suffered because clearly a crypto currency may well become what the US Dollar was, a commodity to exchange value in a way that nobody can reasonably refuse. Whether that is for better or worse, I think that is bigger news then whose got the bigger gun.
If this was open to non-Iranian shipping companies, it would be some Trump-level trolling. The aggressor that starts threatening tankers becomes the protector mobster, using non-USD as a middle finger. The US/Israel can't really start shooting at tankers without becoming the villain no one can accept. They're already low on trust capital everywhere.
So the few payouts for normal claims would be dwarfed by the war insurance premium currently being charged. They could even offer a discount to loyal clients and still have insane margins.
Yeah, I don't see how the US is coming out ahead in this conflict. Israel might have won some against their adversaries, setting them back a while or two.
Even if Iran would charge $2 million per ship (like it has done) it would be manageable cost for for shipping companies and would generate same amount of income as Iran's domestic oil production.
When the US violates the law of the sea in the South America, why not. Everybody complains but understands.
The US should be happy about this. Maybe. Iran seeking reparations is a reasonable demand, this gives the US a way to satisfy a demand without having to pay themselves - which certainly would not be popular, to say the least - making an exit easier. There is of course the risk of setting an undesirable precedent and it is not clear what the consequences of that would be.
Iran has been funding terrorists for decades and the IRGC has murdered tens of thousands of Iranians. There are no reparations for terrorists getting their comeuppance.
The US allowing Iran to levy a toll on Hormuz would completely discredit the US and set the precedent for other countries to levy their own shipping tolls . It's a non-starter.
If anything we hand them tons of cash near 0% to rebuild and they join the Eurodollar cartel pushing our hegemony further. Politicians would need to do a better job explaining deficit spending and Keynesianism more generally.
I guess I'm just surprised they even bother trying to mask an obvious shake down under the euphemism "insurance" when it's such a trope. Obligatory Sopranos clip of old school mobsters trying to sell "protective insurance" to a Starbucks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Gsz7Gu6agA
Military history is full of quotes like "war is too important to be left to the generals". When you put people who focus on technical matters in charge, they often make poor decisions, as they are not looking at the big picture.
The question is not about whether the US can blockade the Hormuz Strait but who gets blamed for the blockade. Iran is messaging that it is making serious attempts to reopen the strait, while China and Russia are probably reinforcing the message. When people around the world suffer from the consequences of the blockade, they are more likely to blame America for their troubles. Or at least that's what Iran is trying to achieve.
No government have accepted Iranian tolls so far, that is just not going to fly ever. If every country controlling a strait started taking out such tolls that would cause much worse issues than we are seeing currently, nobody will have that.
You mean that these mafia style insurances are a joke, but free (as in safe and not taxed) access to the seas is something many wars have been fought over. "Insurance" selling by navies was the norm until WW1 at least.
A combination of enough insurance to make it worth the time of the owner + offer the workers a generous amount to their next of kin could make it worth it. Being turned into minced meat might be worth it for some people if it means their families become rich.
Exactly. The US just announces that they will take any vessel that pays for transit. So, what happens then? Any vessel that goes through and the IRGC doesn't shoot them, the US seizes. So, no one pays since they can't pay for successful transit. The fun game is that all the vessels just go at once. Any that the IRGC doesn't shoot the US takes. Any that it does shoot sink. So, no transit. Unless IRGC doesn't shoot at all, in which case everyone gets out of there with just one vessel paying the ransom. Ultimately this doesn't work for the IRGC as the US is far more capable of closing the strait than Iran is.
The US can also fuck with Iran by getting slight cooperation from ships in the Gulf of Oman by getting some small inflatable boats with remote control and AIS transmitters on them. Put the boat in the water next to a ship, turn of the ship's AIS, turn on the boats AIS, and send the boat through. Send hundreds of them. IRGC won't know what to shoot at or will expose their positions by firing at a rubber raft.
The reason the US is blockading is because Iran is only partially blockading it. If Iran wasn't blockading at all then America wouldn't either. But it's pretty clear that "only shops whose countries pay a lot of money to Iran" would help Iran.
Sure, but when it happens it's no longer Iran's problem - it's your problem. (And maybe America's problem, unless America gains anything from the global trade burning down.)
It's worth remembering that the Iranians have as yet never claimed that the strait is mined. They have said that it may be. A lot of reporting misses this and assumes (perhaps deliberately) that the presence of mines is a fact.
But of course Iran doesn't need mines to enforce the blockade. They have drones and missiles that can be operated safely from 100's of kilometres away. They have anti-ship sea-skimming missiles. Not to mention the very large fleet of small armed fastboats.
I’m not convinced that bitcoin is stable enough to use in insurance products. The currency volatility risk is too high to reasonably cover the covered losses which will need to be covered in some other currency to do things like replace boats etc.
The volatility is only an issue if you need to convert the bitcoin in the near future. If you are willing to wait, volatility goes in your advantage. Bitcoin is volatile enough that if you wait for maybe a few years you will probably hit a pump that will far exceed the growth of most other investments. You don't even need to sell at the high to do this, the run up is often plenty enough gain.
They were charging 0BTC per ship before, so they come out ahead no matter the current value of the coin. They can change their fees by the day as well.
I don’t know stuff but I feel I’ve learned that the Americans can make basic commerce unbelievably painful for whoever they choose through sanctions and disconnection from various financial systems.
I mean, kind of. If I give you an address to use to send me money, and I don't tell anyone else that address, and you don't tell anyone else that address, then nobody else can be sure who is behind the transaction.
If they put a substantial portion of their wealth into bitcoin we might witness the ultimate rugpull when the BTC creators cash in their large share of previously untouched coins.
Let’s be frank. Iran could have built at least crude gun type fission bombs since they reached industrial scale for enrichment. And this being very dismissing of Iranian scientific and technological capabilities.
Given modern computer consumer hardware, I don’t see why they couldn’t even have built implosion lens based fission devices without testing. DPRK would probably provide them with all the data they needed for the simulations.
Iran has been a few weeks from having a few bombs for the last 30 years because they decided not to build it.
Which, when you think about it, shows that the 'Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb' argument for this war is not exactly the true motivation (not to say that the US and Israel really don't want them to have a bomb).
This war is about trashing Iran. Adding it to the string of other failed states in the area. It would be more honest for Trump and Netanyahu to say that the motivation for this war is to ensure that Iran becomes a state that is incapable of developing the bomb (i.e. a failed and fractured, or weak and compliant).
crypto insurance products have been very successful in the DeFi space for more than half a decade, a protocol you are using gets hacked and instead of whaling about it on hackernews the insurance policy you opened pays out immediately
there is a lot of examples on how to design it, and it doesn't really seem like this Iranian one for shipping is designed well if its just an insurance pool in bitcoin at all times
but if they are using the bitcoin blockchain to sign the insurance records of a policy and claim, and then the state administrator is acquiring bitcoin to pay out policies at time of claim, then that could work. that was one of the bullish cases theorized for bitcoin back in 2011, 2012, its a long list
I had fairly deep knowledge about the bitcoin code base 7 years ago and I got a weird vibe from it as I've seen government code before. When I learned that Tor was funded by the Navy something clicked. Just as it makes sense to have a large onion network to allow spies abroad to surf the web anonymously, it would make sense to also have a currency you can use to fund agents or groups abroad that lived outside the banking system. Bitcoin makes sense for that purpose. If you have a large border-less digital currency with many people on it, even if it is traceable, it's still less risky then using cash which you would have to launder.
The fact that many states are now using it for funding purposes to get around the banking system further adds proof to bitcoin's potential origin.
Also, it doesn't help that Satoshi Nakamoto means basically central intelligence in Japanese...
I'm not saying Bitcoin was created by the government, but if it was there are signs...
It's a lot easier to carry bitcoins than suitcases full of foreign cash or gold bars too. In China, they moved to digital currencies in part I believe to defeat CIA bags of cash (no point in getting stacks of paper money you can't use...). However, censorship resistant digital currencies allow them to continue their sneaky tricks.
This kind of thing explains in part why despite being an obvious scam, the government allowed cryptocurrencies to grow so large that eventually they formed their own feedback loop so strong that crypto bros were the biggest funders the 2024 presidential campaigns.
How do you ban bitcoin? It’s not hosted or supported by American financial rails or any entity like swift which can be influenced by the USA in any meaningful way.
How do you ban this? It’s not part of swift or any us govt. backed global financial rails. If Iran(a sanctioned entity) supports this then this is more proof that the thing works.
I’m not gonna comment on if it’s a good idea or not, but the US government could make it illegal for any financial institution that does business in America interacting with crypto.
They could also make it illegal for any US financial institution to do business with any financial institution that interacts with crypto.
They could probably also make it a crime to buy/sell crypto in America.
I don't give a f--k about Bitcoin but I wouldn't want governments to start banning it.
Because then why not ban VPN forever too? And require a digital ID for anyone going on to the Internet?
And why not also mandate cameras operated by the state in every room of your apartment/house to make sure you behave?
And backdoor in every cryptographic protocol.
I mean why stop at banning Bitcoin komrade?
BTW the EU is thinking about creating an EU-wide registry of every single asset owned by every single EU citizen, down to every gold coin (oh btw maybe we should ban individuals owning gold coins too?), every jewel, every painting, sculpture, old car, watch, pokemand and Magic the Gathering card: they literally have a plan to make an inventory of every single asset. When asked, by a member of the EU parliament I think, if they could promise this would never be used as a basis for confiscation the EU Commission answered they couldn't promise that.
Where do you draw the line? Is there one point at which you start saying that freedom shouldn't be taken away?
If the Dems don't win the Senate, nothing will change until maybe February 2029 but pretty sure the same people that gave him this power of insanity are just going to vote for the next nightmare, there's no lesson learned, not even with $5 gas and $6 diesel
I don't even think a full blown recession would change anything
And now they are bringing the warships back to Cuba so get ready for next distraction from this distraction from the other distraction while they crime-spree away
Iran could easily have garnered a lot of international sympathy and support. Instead, they attacked their neighbors, impacted the world economy, and now are basically asking for blackmail money: "nice ship you have there...".
And what has this done to help Iran so far? Trump doesn't care about peoples opinions, US oil is making record profits thanks to the war so there wont be pushback from them, and Trump has 5 more months until midterms that is still plenty of time.
The main thing it resulted in is the Europe led coalition that aims to ensure the strait will never get blocked again, so Iran can never play this card again, that will lose them a lot of political power in the future since this card is now gone.
Well the strait was open and freely navigable before trump bombed them.
What Iran has learned from this is they don’t need sympathy, they need to exercise the leverage they do have, and there’s no way they’re ever going to willingly give that leverage up - they’ve seen what would happen.
Were they theirs? Germany has nukes too but they're not theirs, they're from the US. Germany can't say "fuck off" to the ~50k Americans stationed in the country, leave NATO and get to keep the nukes.
Iran was attacked by the US and Israel (the state committing genocide right now).
International law, rules and agreements don't seem to matter when it comes to the US and Israel.
Fortunately, the world is becoming more and more multi-polar, and the decline of the US (which to a certain extent is probably caused by how Israel is dragging them to wars) is necessary to have some world peace.
I do have to note that I feel sorry for the bulk of Americans who are just trying to live their lives.
This is an incredible 180 degree misinterpretation of who attacked whom. Iran is garnering incredible international sympathy and support. There is no just war theory that can support what America has done to Iran. It is immoral, illegal aggression.
> [Iran] now are basically asking for blackmail money: "nice ship you have there..."
This doesn't sound like the don to you? "hey Iran, nice country you have there..."
> Maybe Trump should bomb them some more?
If the USA is going to be bombing every country which doesn't give up their sovereignty and bend the knee to the don, then the USA is going to need more bombs.
> "terror state". I would have hoped that HN users would be smarter than to parrot FOX news propaganda.
Europe also designated them as a terrorist organization, happened right before the war started. It is a terror state, its just left wing propaganda that they aren't. Or is EU also too influenced by foxnews propaganda? Many countries recognizes them as terrorists, including US, Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia etc.
"EU terrorist list: Council designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation"
> "terror state". I would have hoped that HN users would be smarter than to parrot FOX news propaganda.
Even the most leftist publications in the west acknowledged that the iranian regime has been slaughtering 30 000+ of its own, unarmed, civilians in january this year. They went as far as following the, still unarmed, wounded into hospitals to finish the job.
Iran also then, once they came back to Iran, publicly hung iranian athletes who spoke against the islamist regime while competing abroad.
Now of course the leftist propaganda machine being what it is in the left, here's a documentary I saw on "Arte" (a heavily left-slanting TV channel producing movies and documentaries): as they couldn't not mention the 30 000+ deaths the iranian regime made, they made a documentary about it...
But the entirety of the documentary was about the "hurt feelings" of a poor islamist guard of the iranian regime who was forced, poor him, to kill innocents.
That movie channel, Arte, literally managed to make a documentary turning the thing on its head and presenting the killers as the victims because it was "so hard" to kill unarmed civilians.
I agree with your perspective on the US and Israel but the Iranian regime has been far worse _to their own people_ and the world would be better off if moderates were in charge there.
Too bad trump and Hegseth killed them all as they were wantonly blasting targets in Iran and now there is nobody in a good position to take over.
I echo your sentiments. Much of the 'Murika 'Murika bluster even on this thread is so childishly unreal (as if from a MAGA wet dream parallel universe) that it almost doesn't rankle anymore. One feels that even they don't believe their own propaganda anymore, and are still shouting it to somehow "will" it into existence ...
Much of the post-WW2 American-led world order was founded partially on the United States using its military to keep international waters open. It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense. The military might is there, but this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into and did not plan accordingly. (and does not have the will or public support to do so)
The baffling part of this is that nearly everyone was aware that Iran could close the straight if pressed hard enough. The fact that this outcome is surprising represents a very loud and public failure on the administration's part.
I don't know enough about the current state of naval warfare but I've assumed this is related to the asymmetry that's emerged around protecting capital warships, especially in the scenario of a very narrow strait and a long enemy-controlled coastline. They can shoot relatively low-cost, short-range guided missiles from anywhere along the coast. Even if a warship stops the vast majority of them, only one has to get through to sink a multi-billion dollar ship that takes a decade to replace.
There are now similar asymmetries emerging across war-fighting and even though warships can still be effective (and less vulnerable) in other scenarios, this specific one seems especially bad. The other factor is that most of what ships carry through the straight isn't going directly to the U.S. so the impact on the U.S. is mostly secondary, reducing the risk the U.S. is willing to take. Of course, all this was known beforehand by military strategists which makes this all look even worse for the U.S. administration.
Modern US surface warships such as the DDG-52 Arleigh Burke class are pretty survivable. The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything. And a single hit would be highly unlikely to sink such as vessel: we're not talking about something like the Russian Moskva cruiser that was crewed by drunks and had inoperative defensive systems.
The real problem is that there are too few such vessels to sustain convoy escort operations. Each destroyer can only provide area air defense for a handful of merchant vessels, and they can only stay on station for a few days at a time before they have to cycle out to refuel, rearm, and conduct critical maintenance. Some of the key munitions also appear to running low. And it appears that the other Gulf states are refusing to allow use of their facilities over fears of Iranian retaliation.
Other countries generally aren't really in a position to assist as part of a coalition either. They either don't have sufficiently capable warships at all, or lack the logistics train to sustain them in the Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman region. After the Cold War a lot of countries like the UK and Germany essentially dismantled their navies so that they now exist only as government jobs programs.
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> I don't know enough about the current state of naval warfare but I've assumed this is related to the asymmetry that's emerged around protecting capital warships, especially in the scenario of a very narrow strait and a long enemy-controlled coastline.
It's not the billion-dollar warships that transport oil, it's the much more fragile and unarmed tankers.
Even if the US Navy begins full escort duty, it can't remain on-station forever. What are shippers to do afterwards? One drone strike might cause a tanker to have a very bad day, yet it's extremely difficult to so permanently degrade an entire country that they become incapable of launching sporadic attacks.
Ultimately, the status of the Strait must be settled diplomatically, and the US and Iran are each betting that the other side will blink first.
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All of this was well known before the war though. The idea that navy is incredibly vulnerable modern anti-ship defenses has been a major consideration in the Taiwan situation for at least a decade (mostly in relation to the ability of the US navy to even operate in the area in a war). More recently, Ukraine has made a great show of sinking navy ships with cheap unmanned surface vehicles
Back in WWII you could sail your navy up a river and expect positive results. In the 21st century, the idea of attacking an enemy-held strait with navy doesn't work
suppose one has N independently developed interception systems (from detection till physical interception attempt), each with an intercept success rate of 90%.
a rudimentary calculation then gives the probability of hitting (not sinking) the ship as 0.1^N per launched missile; so it seems that given enough budget to spend on independently developed missile interception systems allows to drive down the penetration success rate arbitrarily.
Multi-billion sounds like $ 10^10; so assuming an attacker can launch say a million missile attempts then the statistical loss would be 0.1^N * 10^10 * 10^6; so the statistical loss can be driven down arbitrarily say to $ 1 by developing ~ 16 independent interception systems.
16 independently developed intercept systems doesn't sound like unobtainium for a vested nuclear power.
Cheap drones taking out an AWACS is a great example of this. The US has only 16 of these and it will cost $700 million to replace, and was taken out by a drone that probably cost less than your car.
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The US military is also just less powerful than it was at its peak at the end of the Cold War as well.
Still the most powerful navy in the world, but spread increasingly thin (turns out "the whole world" is quite a big place).
This is no longer Reagan's (almost) 600 ship navy, and projecting power halfway round the world is no mean feat when your opponent can lob missiles and drones at you from their back garden
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> Even if a warship stops the vast majority of them, only one has to get through to sink a multi-billion dollar ship that takes a decade to replace.
Even worse. They don't need to attack _warships_. They can just attack civilian vessels, especially tanker ships, that don't have any defenses.
A hit on a tanker and the subsequent oil spill would be catastrophic.
> United States using its military to keep international waters open
Being a little pedantic, as per my knowledge, the Strait of Hormuz is not “international waters”. It’s territorial waters belonging to Iran and Oman. AFAIK, Iran hasn’t ratified UNCLOS either, and claims it is not subject to it.
> It’s territorial waters belonging to Iran and Oman.
The trick is that it's still an 'international strait', or a segment of water that forms the only connection between two areas of high seas -- in this case the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The principle of freedom of navigation establishes that innocent traffic (civilian traffic, and even warships in peacetime) have a right to use the strait to go from one body of international water to the other.
Iran may claim that it doesn't have to abide by that right, but international law is never self-executing. One question to be resolved by this war is whether Iran will ultimately recognize the right to navigation in any settlement (and then choose to abide by said settlement).
If Iran doesn't want to observe the terms of the UNCLOS (regardless of whether they have ratified it or not) then their territorial waters claims revert to the older 3NM limit. They can't have it both ways. Of course, in practice those legalisms don't matter without a means of enforcement.
> Iran hasn’t ratified UNCLOS either, and claims it is not subject to it.
Which isn't unique. Bunch of countries haven't ratified it and aren't legally bound by it but do follow it in spirit. US, Turkey, UAE, Israel etc.
All straits other than the Bosporus (which has some additional rights to Turkey given the proximity to a major city) are international waters for the purposes of free transit, under the Montreux Convention.
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No, the Strait is international waters and always have been.
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> but this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into and did not plan accordingly.
You can reuse this line for most of things this administration has been doing.
The power wasn't there in the first place if the administration couldn't defend Hormuz. It's all the same capital and resources that prior administrations had. The actual blunder was exposing that weakness to the world. We could have done nothing and reputation would've carried the idea that we could.
Not necessarily. It's a matter of risk. How many resources do we want to commit? Are we comfortable putting a large number of troops in Iran? Are we comfortable with major losses as we try to enforce against drones and mines?
It's not that I think any of these things are wise, but this is part of the risk calculus you make when you decide to wage war. It's more like a debate: if you don't have a plan for uncomfortable questions you're a poor debater. The US has the physical means to prevent the closure, but I think it's quite clear that this administration ignored known risks and acted recklessly. And more importantly, apparently had very little contingency planning if things didn't go their way.
> It's all the same capital and resources that prior administrations had.
Is it? Depending on how far back into "prior administrations" you go, the modern US Navy is a shadow of itself.
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Seems like piracy is more about the land than the sea. I can't think of any major american military action against piracy aside from actions against somali terrorists. Seems piracy as it was known historically died out as the old historic pirate havens of say Tortuga or Outer Banks went from places of anarchy to places that were controlled by some government in some capacity. And that is exactly where we see the somali piracy today: here is a state that is unable to govern its land mass and thus there is piracy, even with the american navy directly taking action against this piracy. Seemingly this has nothing to do with the american navy at all, even though that is supposedly one of its mandates and it takes actions in the spirit of advancing these anti piracy goals. The fundamentals of why piracy does and doesn't occur don't really change. It seems it comes down to government capacity on land, not from projecting naval power.
> somali terrorists
Pirates are many things, maybe even criminals under international law, but terrorists they are certainly not.
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I mean that is ignoring the American military experience with Islamic pirates and Islamic slavers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbary_corsairs
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The plan was ostensibly to distract and insider trade. Winning would be counter productive anyway.
I would amend that to be that everyone thought Iran could close the straight, but now they _know_ they can close the straight.
Say what you want but it seems like Iran are the ones playing 4D chess here.
The gamble, which was certainly egged on by Israel, was that two stars aligned and it was high time to strike Iran.
The first star was intense civilian unrest, the months leading up to the strikes was marked by riots and protests.
The second star was the meeting of Iran's top brass in one spot at one time, both of which Israel knew about.
It was almost certainly sold to Trump as a domino event, where the US would blow the head off and the people of Iran would ravage the body. On paper it looks clean, and certainly he was riding on a high after the swift coup in Venezuela.
Of course though, that did not happen, and now he had to go to China to beg under a thin veil for them to pressure Iran to back off. Trump rolled a critical failure on what appeared to be a moderate-low risk attempt.
Side note that the US offered the same plan as Iran. Selling insurance (in USD) to shippers to transit the Strait. They have done $0 in business.
https://www.ft.com/content/eabadd1a-a712-4b44-99bf-bb50eb753...
Ironically the US has never ratified UNCLOS. The American professed interest in maintaining right of passage does not appear to require them to be held to the same standards.
Also the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait not international waters. The entire strait lies within Iranian and Omani waters. Frankly it's a bit absurd to complain that your ships can't transit a country's waters while you bomb them.
No one owns anything or has the right to anything.
Everything is either what you hold by force, or have a friend who holds it by force for you.
The original ship channel was in Omani waters, not Iranian. It is entirely unreasonable to consider it reasonable for Iran to mine Omani waters.
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> Frankly it's a bit absurd to complain that your ships can't transit a country's waters while you bomb them.
The issue is they block all non-Iranian ships, not just American ships. Basically nobody would have complained if they only blocked American ships.
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This outcome is still favorable for nethyanandu and he used trump and USA as tool.
there is only one man who is surprised and he is Orange and Extremely Ignorant
Iran defeated the US the minute trump was sworn in.
In a sense, this is the defeat of the US by bin Laden - it's been a steady slide until the trump cliff since then.
The post-WW2 American-led world order was, at times, a shared world order between the United States and Soviet Union. Free trade, perhaps, was "enforced" by the United States Navy but that was for the benefit of all nations and it seems to me to have been something pretty widely understood.
If the US military fails to keep international waters open, that harms everyone, and everyone more so than the United States. There's this continued misunderstanding that America did this or that, or securing global shipping is for America to do, or what have you. But you can't have your cake and eat it too here. If you accept American hegemony of the seas and the associated benefits, you have to also accept American action in places like Iran. It's a package deal - you get both or neither. There seems to be a misunderstanding about that, I hope it's a little more clear now.
> It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense.
To this second point, the US can just keep the Strait closed. No big deal. It isn't really possible for Iran to forcibly win here because while the US has higher gas prices, we're the #1 oil and gas market and we can stomach the pain much longer less you get complaints from MAGA/far-left anti-American types. Iran would simply watch their entire economy collapse, while Americans are paying a couple bucks more for cheeseburgers and milkshakes.
But the perspective that the US would be defeated is the incorrect one. In fact, what would be defeated here is that very American-led world order. For the US to be defeated here, as so many seem to rejoice at the prospect of, you would also lose American naval power and security, and instead each and every country would have to spend a lot more human capital and treasure to secure their own shipping and trade arrangements, because there would be no America to come help and save the day. No more NATO. No more caring about Taiwan or Ukraine (remember Iran helps Russians kill Ukrainians?) or getting involved in expeditionary affairs. You can not separate these things. Iran happens for the same reason NATO happens. The world will be much more transactional - pay to play and a global American security tax. A scenario like the one in Iran, in which a genocidal dictatorship that is all to happy to steal tribute from weaker nations simply becomes the norm, if not simply more common, and the EU or China or whoever can deal with it.
So I'd say, be careful to join other isolationists and smugly cheer for the US to "lose" to Iran, and in which case you can expect much worse as the US says "forget it" and only seeks to protect its own vital interests without regard to the rest of the world - the Trumpian and far left view which is a marriage of convenience.
The administration knew this very well. They've been swinging the markets wildly and intentionally several times and they and their buddies have made billions from it.
> this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into
All of the advisors in the room with Trump (Cheung, Caine, etc.) told him explicitly after the meeting with Netanyahu that attacking Iran was a horrible idea. His military advisors told him that Strait closure was the most obvious consequence.
The root cause here, is that all decisions are being made by a single biological neural network with a really high error rate, which is increasing.
Or is it posible this administration just took a win-win-win position?
1 - US oil and gas companies make money as oil proces rise. The US is the largest producer in the world.
2 - China loses it's major source of oil and gas.
3 - Iran gets neutralized. It may not look like it now, but it will probably end up that way.
1 - A win for the shareholders of U.S. oil companies, close to half of which aren’t even Americans, but not a win for Americans even on a purely financial basis given that they are paying more for gas and food. 2 - China hasn’t lost its source of gas and oil. They have more reserves than the rest of the world put together and can outlast every other country, and they’re still getting shipments. 3 - The exact opposite of reality. Iran’s potential to acquire nuclear weapons was one of their biggest dangers for the rest of the world. But with this the U.S. has given Iran a new actual power that had been conjectured but never realized. Control over 20% of the world’s fuel supply and large percentages of other critical raw materials.
Even if this analysis were accurate, I would feel much better if the administration had intentionally gone this route rather than accidentally blundering into it.
You don’t permanently remove 20% of the worlds oil, 30% of the fertilizer while having a incredibly financialized economy and somehow get on the other side of it healthy and rich.
For one, this would be the end of the Petrodollar and with it the ability to have huge trade deficits siphoning more than 1 trillion in goods and services from the rest of the world in exchange for fancy green paper.
People can try to come up with 4D chess explanations for the Trump admin's actions here all they want, but the truth is this is 0D chess.
Just a massive strategic blunder, one for the history books.
Any minor damage to China is tiny compared to the strategic loss America has undergone here
3 - Iran moderates are neutralized, so hardcore fanatics from IRGC take over. Loss for literally everybody.
Otherwise, 1) and 2) are true, Europe is bleeding through the nose with buying US oil and depending on its current antagonist, not smart long term situation that we need to move away asap.
Somebody in US government is making literal billions on shorts and various trade deals just before major announcements keep happening, those are not that hard to see in markets. Current top public bet on this is trumps family and his close coworkers, and their families. If you ever want a witch hunt on traitors and collaborators against US citizens and society, smart up, forget Wall street and just follow those money very directly to culprits.
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Why is everyone obsessed with US military when the news seems to be Bitcoin? Just like that the US Dollar suffered because clearly a crypto currency may well become what the US Dollar was, a commodity to exchange value in a way that nobody can reasonably refuse. Whether that is for better or worse, I think that is bigger news then whose got the bigger gun.
It is bigger news indeed. I think previously China and Saudi were settling their account deficit with gold, a big airplane load every now and then.
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If this was open to non-Iranian shipping companies, it would be some Trump-level trolling. The aggressor that starts threatening tankers becomes the protector mobster, using non-USD as a middle finger. The US/Israel can't really start shooting at tankers without becoming the villain no one can accept. They're already low on trust capital everywhere.
So the few payouts for normal claims would be dwarfed by the war insurance premium currently being charged. They could even offer a discount to loyal clients and still have insane margins.
Yeah, I don't see how the US is coming out ahead in this conflict. Israel might have won some against their adversaries, setting them back a while or two.
Even if Iran would charge $2 million per ship (like it has done) it would be manageable cost for for shipping companies and would generate same amount of income as Iran's domestic oil production.
When the US violates the law of the sea in the South America, why not. Everybody complains but understands.
The US should be happy about this. Maybe. Iran seeking reparations is a reasonable demand, this gives the US a way to satisfy a demand without having to pay themselves - which certainly would not be popular, to say the least - making an exit easier. There is of course the risk of setting an undesirable precedent and it is not clear what the consequences of that would be.
Iran has been funding terrorists for decades and the IRGC has murdered tens of thousands of Iranians. There are no reparations for terrorists getting their comeuppance.
The US allowing Iran to levy a toll on Hormuz would completely discredit the US and set the precedent for other countries to levy their own shipping tolls . It's a non-starter.
If anything we hand them tons of cash near 0% to rebuild and they join the Eurodollar cartel pushing our hegemony further. Politicians would need to do a better job explaining deficit spending and Keynesianism more generally.
I guess I'm just surprised they even bother trying to mask an obvious shake down under the euphemism "insurance" when it's such a trope. Obligatory Sopranos clip of old school mobsters trying to sell "protective insurance" to a Starbucks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Gsz7Gu6agA
It lets people not look up. And given the slightest opportunity an awful lot of people will take the don't look up answer.
There's no insurance scheme the IRGC can concoct that protects against the US navy hitting your rudder with a 20mm gun.
Military history is full of quotes like "war is too important to be left to the generals". When you put people who focus on technical matters in charge, they often make poor decisions, as they are not looking at the big picture.
The question is not about whether the US can blockade the Hormuz Strait but who gets blamed for the blockade. Iran is messaging that it is making serious attempts to reopen the strait, while China and Russia are probably reinforcing the message. When people around the world suffer from the consequences of the blockade, they are more likely to blame America for their troubles. Or at least that's what Iran is trying to achieve.
No government have accepted Iranian tolls so far, that is just not going to fly ever. If every country controlling a strait started taking out such tolls that would cause much worse issues than we are seeing currently, nobody will have that.
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Just wait for CENTCOM bulletin with their USDC blockade insurance address
Hah, far more likely that it would be $TRUMP or $PATRIOT shitcoins. Gotta skim somehow.
bc1qxy2kgdytzdonaldjlostiranwartrump
You mean that these mafia style insurances are a joke, but free (as in safe and not taxed) access to the seas is something many wars have been fought over. "Insurance" selling by navies was the norm until WW1 at least.
A Iran drone then bombing UAE's oil infrastructure as payback?
They are already doing that so it wouldn't change anything.
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A combination of enough insurance to make it worth the time of the owner + offer the workers a generous amount to their next of kin could make it worth it. Being turned into minced meat might be worth it for some people if it means their families become rich.
Exactly. The US just announces that they will take any vessel that pays for transit. So, what happens then? Any vessel that goes through and the IRGC doesn't shoot them, the US seizes. So, no one pays since they can't pay for successful transit. The fun game is that all the vessels just go at once. Any that the IRGC doesn't shoot the US takes. Any that it does shoot sink. So, no transit. Unless IRGC doesn't shoot at all, in which case everyone gets out of there with just one vessel paying the ransom. Ultimately this doesn't work for the IRGC as the US is far more capable of closing the strait than Iran is.
The US can also fuck with Iran by getting slight cooperation from ships in the Gulf of Oman by getting some small inflatable boats with remote control and AIS transmitters on them. Put the boat in the water next to a ship, turn of the ship's AIS, turn on the boats AIS, and send the boat through. Send hundreds of them. IRGC won't know what to shoot at or will expose their positions by firing at a rubber raft.
Or they'll use a pair of binoculars (or a drone with a camera) to ignore the decoys and shoot at the actual ship...
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US Navy has shown particular strength in this conflict against Iran, sitting in the international waters many (many, many) miles away and chillin :)
I would have never realised that things would have taken such an Onion worthy scatological turn.
s/n/d/6
Whats weak about doing the smart thing?
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You realize that America "in theory" wants ships to transit the strait right? The US blockade is self-defeating.
You can't block the strait if we block the strait! lmao
The US is blockading the Iranian coast, not the entirety of the Strait.
The reason the US is blockading is because Iran is only partially blockading it. If Iran wasn't blockading at all then America wouldn't either. But it's pretty clear that "only shops whose countries pay a lot of money to Iran" would help Iran.
Sure, but when it happens it's no longer Iran's problem - it's your problem. (And maybe America's problem, unless America gains anything from the global trade burning down.)
My first thought: what mining power does Iran have? Seems important.
It's worth remembering that the Iranians have as yet never claimed that the strait is mined. They have said that it may be. A lot of reporting misses this and assumes (perhaps deliberately) that the presence of mines is a fact.
But of course Iran doesn't need mines to enforce the blockade. They have drones and missiles that can be operated safely from 100's of kilometres away. They have anti-ship sea-skimming missiles. Not to mention the very large fleet of small armed fastboats.
I’m not convinced that bitcoin is stable enough to use in insurance products. The currency volatility risk is too high to reasonably cover the covered losses which will need to be covered in some other currency to do things like replace boats etc.
The volatility is only an issue if you need to convert the bitcoin in the near future. If you are willing to wait, volatility goes in your advantage. Bitcoin is volatile enough that if you wait for maybe a few years you will probably hit a pump that will far exceed the growth of most other investments. You don't even need to sell at the high to do this, the run up is often plenty enough gain.
They were charging 0BTC per ship before, so they come out ahead no matter the current value of the coin. They can change their fees by the day as well.
More of a "Bitcoin-Backed Protection Racket", presumably?
We know they are just going to spend it all on polymarket.
Bitcoin does make the transaction publicly traceable. Either they have not realised that, seems unlikely, or they prefer it that way.
It's not about traceability, it's about not having to use the dollar as currency.
That's significant messaging though -- we don't have anything to hide, down with the dollar.
I have read many comments that the regime wants to money launder the inflow. Bitcoin would be rather inconvenient for that.
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I don’t know stuff but I feel I’ve learned that the Americans can make basic commerce unbelievably painful for whoever they choose through sanctions and disconnection from various financial systems.
Oh they are well aware and using bitcoin for years. Nobitex is an Iranian exchange and they have been processing billions using crypto networks:
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/how-trumps-crypto-ven...
What difference does it make?
> Bitcoin does make the transaction publicly traceable
It can be untraceable with CashFusion
No, that doesn't work with Bitcoin, it only works with a fork of Bitcoin that has less than 0.5% of the value of Bitcoin.
I read that as coldfusion and I got some ptsd
I mean, kind of. If I give you an address to use to send me money, and I don't tell anyone else that address, and you don't tell anyone else that address, then nobody else can be sure who is behind the transaction.
Nice ship you have there. Be a shame if something...happened to it.
If they put a substantial portion of their wealth into bitcoin we might witness the ultimate rugpull when the BTC creators cash in their large share of previously untouched coins.
Let’s be frank. Iran could have built at least crude gun type fission bombs since they reached industrial scale for enrichment. And this being very dismissing of Iranian scientific and technological capabilities.
Given modern computer consumer hardware, I don’t see why they couldn’t even have built implosion lens based fission devices without testing. DPRK would probably provide them with all the data they needed for the simulations.
Iran has been a few weeks from having a few bombs for the last 30 years because they decided not to build it.
Exactly.
Which, when you think about it, shows that the 'Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb' argument for this war is not exactly the true motivation (not to say that the US and Israel really don't want them to have a bomb).
This war is about trashing Iran. Adding it to the string of other failed states in the area. It would be more honest for Trump and Netanyahu to say that the motivation for this war is to ensure that Iran becomes a state that is incapable of developing the bomb (i.e. a failed and fractured, or weak and compliant).
This global tax will be Trump’s legacy. It will be what the world knows him for generations after he is gone.
crypto insurance products have been very successful in the DeFi space for more than half a decade, a protocol you are using gets hacked and instead of whaling about it on hackernews the insurance policy you opened pays out immediately
there is a lot of examples on how to design it, and it doesn't really seem like this Iranian one for shipping is designed well if its just an insurance pool in bitcoin at all times
but if they are using the bitcoin blockchain to sign the insurance records of a policy and claim, and then the state administrator is acquiring bitcoin to pay out policies at time of claim, then that could work. that was one of the bullish cases theorized for bitcoin back in 2011, 2012, its a long list
I had fairly deep knowledge about the bitcoin code base 7 years ago and I got a weird vibe from it as I've seen government code before. When I learned that Tor was funded by the Navy something clicked. Just as it makes sense to have a large onion network to allow spies abroad to surf the web anonymously, it would make sense to also have a currency you can use to fund agents or groups abroad that lived outside the banking system. Bitcoin makes sense for that purpose. If you have a large border-less digital currency with many people on it, even if it is traceable, it's still less risky then using cash which you would have to launder.
The fact that many states are now using it for funding purposes to get around the banking system further adds proof to bitcoin's potential origin.
Also, it doesn't help that Satoshi Nakamoto means basically central intelligence in Japanese...
I'm not saying Bitcoin was created by the government, but if it was there are signs...
It's a lot easier to carry bitcoins than suitcases full of foreign cash or gold bars too. In China, they moved to digital currencies in part I believe to defeat CIA bags of cash (no point in getting stacks of paper money you can't use...). However, censorship resistant digital currencies allow them to continue their sneaky tricks.
This kind of thing explains in part why despite being an obvious scam, the government allowed cryptocurrencies to grow so large that eventually they formed their own feedback loop so strong that crypto bros were the biggest funders the 2024 presidential campaigns.
“Insurance”
https://archive.ph/r8TuZ
Corrupted but there's more I guess.
Syndicated here: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/iran-start...
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Maybe after the mobster losers in the white House finally get kicked out we can just ban this thing forever. How can we abide this crypto stuff?
How do you ban bitcoin? It’s not hosted or supported by American financial rails or any entity like swift which can be influenced by the USA in any meaningful way.
It's supported and influenced by the USA in the sense that if you can't ever turn it into dollars it becomes much less interesting.
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You could make it prohibitively problematic to use for most things.
You do what the the US is doing right now to starve Cuba & end civilization there: you embargo/sanction anyone doing business there.
Like the Treasury/Dept of Commerce & others did with North Korean backed Tornado Cash. Some very quickly retrieved/not well researched (caveat reader) search links; https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0916 https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/crypto-policy-tracker/...
How do you ban this? It’s not part of swift or any us govt. backed global financial rails. If Iran(a sanctioned entity) supports this then this is more proof that the thing works.
I’m not gonna comment on if it’s a good idea or not, but the US government could make it illegal for any financial institution that does business in America interacting with crypto.
They could also make it illegal for any US financial institution to do business with any financial institution that interacts with crypto.
They could probably also make it a crime to buy/sell crypto in America.
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China already bans crypto. If America and Europe followed suit, the market for crypto would quickly collapse
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> How do you ban this?
In America? KYC would suffice.
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> ... we can just ban this thing forever.
I don't give a f--k about Bitcoin but I wouldn't want governments to start banning it.
Because then why not ban VPN forever too? And require a digital ID for anyone going on to the Internet?
And why not also mandate cameras operated by the state in every room of your apartment/house to make sure you behave?
And backdoor in every cryptographic protocol.
I mean why stop at banning Bitcoin komrade?
BTW the EU is thinking about creating an EU-wide registry of every single asset owned by every single EU citizen, down to every gold coin (oh btw maybe we should ban individuals owning gold coins too?), every jewel, every painting, sculpture, old car, watch, pokemand and Magic the Gathering card: they literally have a plan to make an inventory of every single asset. When asked, by a member of the EU parliament I think, if they could promise this would never be used as a basis for confiscation the EU Commission answered they couldn't promise that.
Where do you draw the line? Is there one point at which you start saying that freedom shouldn't be taken away?
Kicked out?
If the Dems don't win the Senate, nothing will change until maybe February 2029 but pretty sure the same people that gave him this power of insanity are just going to vote for the next nightmare, there's no lesson learned, not even with $5 gas and $6 diesel
I don't even think a full blown recession would change anything
And now they are bringing the warships back to Cuba so get ready for next distraction from this distraction from the other distraction while they crime-spree away
You and I and everybody else just handed $1 million to Jan 6th insurrectionists.
Whatever is going to happen over the next 24 months is already in motion. All we can do now is prepare. And maybe get a little less squeamish.
Iran could easily have garnered a lot of international sympathy and support. Instead, they attacked their neighbors, impacted the world economy, and now are basically asking for blackmail money: "nice ship you have there...".
Maybe Trump should bomb them some more?
Sympathy gets you Gaza, West Bank and a few refugee camps.
Geopolitics understands one language alone.
And what has this done to help Iran so far? Trump doesn't care about peoples opinions, US oil is making record profits thanks to the war so there wont be pushback from them, and Trump has 5 more months until midterms that is still plenty of time.
The main thing it resulted in is the Europe led coalition that aims to ensure the strait will never get blocked again, so Iran can never play this card again, that will lose them a lot of political power in the future since this card is now gone.
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Well the strait was open and freely navigable before trump bombed them.
What Iran has learned from this is they don’t need sympathy, they need to exercise the leverage they do have, and there’s no way they’re ever going to willingly give that leverage up - they’ve seen what would happen.
Some idiot tore up the JCPOA, the only thing really preventing Iran from getting nukes. The lesson here is: get nukes
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Ukraine also gave up its nukes. Look how that worked out for them and Europe.
Were they theirs? Germany has nukes too but they're not theirs, they're from the US. Germany can't say "fuck off" to the ~50k Americans stationed in the country, leave NATO and get to keep the nukes.
yeah right, lets kill some more Iranian schoolgirls!!
"Iran could easily have garnered a lot of international sympathy and support"
What? I understand sympathy but I am not understanding what the path could've been to meaningful support against US aggression here.
Well it worked to get USA and Israel to stop attacking.
International law, much less "international sympathy", is a meaningless phrase in 2026.
Iran was attacked by the US and Israel (the state committing genocide right now). International law, rules and agreements don't seem to matter when it comes to the US and Israel. Fortunately, the world is becoming more and more multi-polar, and the decline of the US (which to a certain extent is probably caused by how Israel is dragging them to wars) is necessary to have some world peace. I do have to note that I feel sorry for the bulk of Americans who are just trying to live their lives.
This is an incredible 180 degree misinterpretation of who attacked whom. Iran is garnering incredible international sympathy and support. There is no just war theory that can support what America has done to Iran. It is immoral, illegal aggression.
They ate getting relatively little sympathy. Why? Because they are pissing everyone off who might have sympathized.
Seriously dumb. And now this mafia-esque blackmail?
> Iran is garnering incredible international sympathy and support.
From who?
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Iran knows hard currency is better than soft power
> [Iran] now are basically asking for blackmail money: "nice ship you have there..."
This doesn't sound like the don to you? "hey Iran, nice country you have there..."
> Maybe Trump should bomb them some more?
If the USA is going to be bombing every country which doesn't give up their sovereignty and bend the knee to the don, then the USA is going to need more bombs.
My comment about Trump was meant to be sarcastic. Sorry, if that was not obvious...
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Finally, the killer app for blockchain: Paying ransom to a terror state.
Using bitcoin to pay extortions or ransoms is very common. What ransomware doesn't use bitcoin?
Is the US or Israel asking for blockchain payments for access?
"terror state". I would have hoped that HN users would be smarter than to parrot FOX news propaganda.
> "terror state". I would have hoped that HN users would be smarter than to parrot FOX news propaganda.
Europe also designated them as a terrorist organization, happened right before the war started. It is a terror state, its just left wing propaganda that they aren't. Or is EU also too influenced by foxnews propaganda? Many countries recognizes them as terrorists, including US, Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia etc.
"EU terrorist list: Council designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation"
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026...
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> "terror state". I would have hoped that HN users would be smarter than to parrot FOX news propaganda.
Even the most leftist publications in the west acknowledged that the iranian regime has been slaughtering 30 000+ of its own, unarmed, civilians in january this year. They went as far as following the, still unarmed, wounded into hospitals to finish the job.
Iran also then, once they came back to Iran, publicly hung iranian athletes who spoke against the islamist regime while competing abroad.
Now of course the leftist propaganda machine being what it is in the left, here's a documentary I saw on "Arte" (a heavily left-slanting TV channel producing movies and documentaries): as they couldn't not mention the 30 000+ deaths the iranian regime made, they made a documentary about it...
But the entirety of the documentary was about the "hurt feelings" of a poor islamist guard of the iranian regime who was forced, poor him, to kill innocents.
That movie channel, Arte, literally managed to make a documentary turning the thing on its head and presenting the killers as the victims because it was "so hard" to kill unarmed civilians.
So enlighten me a bit a propaganda please.
I agree with your perspective on the US and Israel but the Iranian regime has been far worse _to their own people_ and the world would be better off if moderates were in charge there.
Too bad trump and Hegseth killed them all as they were wantonly blasting targets in Iran and now there is nobody in a good position to take over.
I echo your sentiments. Much of the 'Murika 'Murika bluster even on this thread is so childishly unreal (as if from a MAGA wet dream parallel universe) that it almost doesn't rankle anymore. One feels that even they don't believe their own propaganda anymore, and are still shouting it to somehow "will" it into existence ...
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Terror state, for them doesn't include genocidal colonialist invaders like Israel.
These descriptions are from objective scholars including Jewish ones btw.
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