← Back to context

Comment by simonw

10 hours ago

Nilay Patel has been talking about "Google Zero" - the moment when Google effectively stops sending any traffic to other sites - for a few years now: https://www.theverge.com/24167865/google-zero-search-crash-h...

Which as some running a website raises a fascinating question. If Google is just going to crawl my sites and present information as an AI summary on their site, then what exactly do I gain by allowing Googlebot to crawl my sites?

  • A couple of years back I worked with a company which maintained specific data which was the main traffic driver on that page. Google approached them and wanted to pay for the rights to get the data and display it on top of the search results, a feature which was fairly new back then.

    This was an interesting dilemma because it was very clear that the money was way less than the loss in ad revenue due to traffic drop, but it was also clear that if we wouldn’t take the deal, a more desperate competitor would, which would result in the same traffic loss but without the extra google money. So the company took the deal.

    History repeats itself here, with the difference that instead of paying for the data, the ai crawlers simply take it for free.

  • It's a catch-22. Without google crawling your site, you don't get any new traffic. But with google crawling your site, you also might not get any traffic.

    AI summarization has already causes issues for sites like rtings where people are no longer visiting the site but still making use of the data presented there. Leading to rtings not getting enough traffic to continue to post their data.

    It is an existential crisis for websites and when they go away it'll be an existential crisis for AI.

    • > Without google crawling your site, you don't get any new traffic. But with google crawling your site, you also might not get any traffic.

      I may be strange and unusual, but I just have never cared about my Google ranking. I know this makes me out of the ordinary among site owners but I have been humming along fine.

      This certainly will disrupt traffic but for some of my sites I honestly think this is a good thing. I want you to want to be there, not just stumble upon my site because you happen to hit the right search keyword. Plus if it gets bad, this does create a new opportunity for others with cross linking and search.

      4 replies →

    • > Leading to rtings not getting enough traffic to continue to post their data.

      And here I thought denying ad revenue to websites was the morally superior way to navigate the web...

    • > Without google crawling your site, you don't get any new traffic

      What about the stories of marketing managers who learned months after the fact that their credit card had expired and their google ad spend had ceased with no affect on traffic? Google isn't always an effective promotional vehicle.

      5 replies →

  • Internet is more and more becoming a commercialization platform. If you are selling something on your website, you still want Google (or ChatGPT for that matters) to expose customers to your product. The gate is the actual delivery of the product is behind a purchase/signup. Google and others want to control the entire customer journey, to the point the your website is simply a way to pass metadata to them. They are actually achieving this!

    this kills the entire internet vibe of the 90s, early 2k

    • > is more and more becoming a commercialization platform

      FTFY: "couple of decades since has become". The vibes of passion-driven 1990s started to be overwhelmed by the din of money right when the Internet has become a major commerce venue, some time in early 2000s.

  • Sites pay good money to appear on top search results. Looks like the future is going to be sponsored AI sources. It's going to be even more difficult to figure out if google is presenting you with actual information instead of just an ad

  • I write things on the internet because I want to share ideas. If someone reads my post and tells a friend, that's great. If an AI crawls my posts and passes along the ideas that's great too.

    (It doesn't work for ad-funded writing, but while I have substantial sympathy there this has historically been an unpopular argument on HN)

    • Sure but this means that you’re no longer eligible to make living from your ideas, which can be fine by you but it eliminates entire class of people who used to make living from intellectual work.

      This also could have been fine, it can bring back authenticity however for this to happen no one should be making money from it. Instead, only megacorps make money and they can just ignore your ideas and generate theirs. They control the distribution and the supply now.

      1 reply →

    • Setting aside ad-driven revenue - the ideas, when spat out by an llm, are disconnected from the author. If people like your ideas, they aren’t becoming fans/followers/long-term-readers. That means good luck leveraging some interesting writing into a book, a speaking tour, a podcast, or even any kind of consistent readership. The llm slurps up your content and monetizes it while you get nothing.

      3 replies →

  • If your site is all about disseminating information (like Wikipedia), then Google would provide a free mirror of sorts.

    If your site is about your product, Google won't be able to serve the sign-up page from AI; the traffic would come your way. Same for a site that sell something: the traffic you're interested in would arrive at your checkout page.

    Paid-content sites and ad-supported sites are screwed though, on top of their being screwed by archive.is and ad blockers.

    • The really confusing part about the ad-supported sites is that most of them are supported by Google's ad products. So Google is eating their own lunch here.

      1 reply →

  • The expected purpose of websites is to spread information, so whether users get it by making a request to your website or to Google is irrelevant. In fact, if they get it from Google it's better because it reduces website load.

    If instead the purpose of your website is to manipulate users for financial gain (for instance by showing media attempting to manipulate their purchasing decisions, after receiving a bribe from a vendor), and the information is just a way to lure users, then maybe this malicious business model will finally be no longer possible.

  • You're allowed to exist on the web. The alternative is you are pushed out, your site is not indexed and google / chrome labels it as a security risk when people are trying to reach it directly. The mandate is clear: give up the data or give up the spot.

  • That's Google making way for its disruptor. We'll see who that is. Imagine a search engine that just presents search results. Groundbreaking.

    • More likely you're going to get a search engine which returns results as short 5 second AI generated video clips with an infinite scroll.

      (Torment Nexus rules apply here)

  • What you gain? Nothing, but they and other AI companies have decided not to respect your robots.txt

    • There are other ways to block robots from crawling our sites. I have a robots.txt but place no faith in it, it’s just there because it’s cheap and does stop some of the crawlers.

  • Free speculation: I could see a future where Google populates a footer on results with the website logos of the sources. Presumably, the new web will require users to memorize websites/brands and go directly to those sites if they see a lot of their results are being provided by one source.

    Websites may go back to being simply labors of love.

    • > Websites may go back to being simply labors of love.

      The situation may be even worse. Back in the labor of love era, at least webmasters could get feedback from readers. In the LLM era, readers may not even know that the site exists. Without feedback/community, the overall quality of those sites will decrease over time.

    • >I could see a future where Google populates a footer on results with the website logos of the sources.

      ChatGPT/Claude does this today. I barely click or care for the source when they already have me the info I wanted.

      My speculation is all information worth anything is going to be behind some kind of wall.

      3 replies →

    • Google's AI summaries already do this. I occasionally click through to see the underlying source the AI summary leaned on to generate the response, but probably only ~20% of the time.

    • It seems like they should have a model similar to YouTube. If I watch a video on YouTube made by someone, they get a little cash, and it ads up.

      Similarly, if I use Gemini uses a website for an answer, it should pay something to those sites for the information it gathered. Sites would need to sign up to earn via Google, and I'd imagine there would be a certain threshold to cross to make it worth cutting checks... but that would make all these AI search tools feel much less scummy while providing site owners an incentive to keep sharing information on the internet.

      Where a model like this would get messy is with sites like reddit. It's a very popular source for AI search, but the value comes from the users, not the platform itself.

      2 replies →

  • well its already happening and people are fighting over traffic crumbs already, they call it GEO

  • Maybe you want your ideas to spread? If your sites purpose is getting ad impressions then yea no point. But if your purpose is to spread ideas then it is still useful.

  • > allowing Googlebot to crawl my sites

    As far as I know, you don't have a choice. They have no obligation to respect your wishes, and LLMs are legally allowed to scrape & republish your content.

  • Vastly less but still more traffic than if you didn’t participate. I’m sure they will calibrate it just so.

  • (You misspelled someone as some)

    Google has always crawled your site and been an arse! Now you get to decide whether they are hallucinating!

    You can drop pointers on Masto and other socials to your sites - that has not changed.

    Do we need something else? ie you drop a link to somewhere else.

  • > then what exactly do I gain by allowing Googlebot to crawl my sites?

    Mention

    • It's worse than that. They train their models preferentially on what they consider to be high-quality data. But if you look at the usual "references" on search queries, they're often just a post-hoc BS justification that links to spam blogs or Tiktok videos.

  • Allow? Deep down, do you think you have a choice?

    Mechanisms might exist to make you think you have one, the same way copywrite should prevent millions of books being gobbled up by TheZuck but ultimately do you really have a choice?

    Rules and laws don't exists for you.

    • Yes, Google advertises its crawler IP ranges and it is quite easy to keep track of this and block them. But only if you control the infrastructure that your site runs on of course.

      1 reply →

It has reduced traffic to my website by around 65%. I live from that website. My income is a function of the traffic it gets.

I spent 9 years of my life putting hard-earned information on the internet, and now big tech uses it to enrich themselves while putting me out of work. Even my backup plan - software development - is being devalued to hell. It's so damn depressing. We'll get the internet that we deserve.

Over the past year to 1.5 years, in the sites I run, I have seen a drop in traffic from Google, which leveled off, and is now slightly rising.

I think if you look through this thread you’ll see a lot of skepticism of the AI results, and I think that is a fairly broadly held opinion. The obvious way to check the AI answer is to click through to some sources.

I think for Google to stop sending me traffic, it would have to be essentially perfect at AI answers. It will never get there, especially as so many searches are opinion-based like “what is the best mobile phone right now.”

The web as we know it is over.

Websites will die on the vine if LLMs intermediate all the content.

The "website" of the future will be an API optimized for LLM crawlers, serving plain-text content that no end-user will ever view directly. The SEO game will change to LLMAO.

  • Alternatively, we can collectively "fight back" by not using Google and teaching others around us to do so as well. There are plenty of decent [1] and great (better) alternatives, where you're not the product [2]!

    [1]: https://alternativeto.net/software/google-search/?license=fr...

    [2]: https://alternativeto.net/software/google-search/?license=co...

  • > Websites will die on the vine if LLMs intermediate all the content.

    The current zeitgeist of them will, but I think not all.

    My first website (GeoCities) was either before Google existed or very close to it. Connected to people via WebRings and directory listings. More recently, RSS feeds.

    • Yeah there will likely continue be a small underground of old-style websites I guess. But you'll have to be in the loop on how to find them, and very few people will pay to advertise on them.

      1 reply →

  • Here is what I think the future web may look like:

       1) Sites will have mcp / APIs for LLMs. So that when I ask my AI Agent du jour. It can call any of the sites where I have subscriptions for information. 
       2) Sites that are passion projects will be harvested by our LLM overlords.
       3) Sites that people don't type into their web browser and need ad revenue will die.
       4) SEO will finally die.

  • Or more likely move towards substack or newsletters where the pitch is - Don’t let the LLM chose the output for you, go directly to our Substack/newsletter instead.

    This will happen especially with things like conspiracy theories because the choice might be to pollute the output or share the general consensus. Like searches for Apollo landing conspiracy theories can either chose to present “alternate facts” so that people can “do their own research” and conclude it is fake or LLM auto corrects to “Apollo landing happened”.

    • Newsletters have a webview fallback with a public URL that makes them just as susceptible to scraping. If that ever gets fixed, Google will just scrape the full-text content in Gmail instead.

      Newsletters have been around forever and never taken off like the open web and free blogging have. Slapping a Stripe integration on the backend hasn't led to Substack becoming a sustainable business not propped up by VC cash.

He also spins a lot of trash talk about an industry he's never personally worked in as any kind of engineer at all. He's a "Journalist Covering Tech" without a degree in journalism, so he's not even a "Tech Journalist"; might as well be the blogger character from Silicon Valley.

> Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of Chicago.

His hot takes are best ignored, is just convenient click bait for their entire negativity angle.