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Comment by mark212

8 hours ago

as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-emption challenge. On the other hand, it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. Would've expected a class action by a Minnesota user of the service to bring the challenge instead.

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mark212

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ranger207  8 hours ago

I'm curious to see how this works out, because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit, and Kalshi etc's argument that states can't regulate them because they're not technically sports betting is contrary to the spirit of the law

  • cortesoft  6 hours ago

    > because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit

    Traditionally it has not been, but the current CFTC says that 'prediction bets on sports' ARE under their purview. This has not been fully challenged in court, though.

    • oatmeal1  5 hours ago

      If Congress intended for the CFTC to regulate sports betting, it would have had that language in the act that originated the agency. It's telling that only recently the CFTC has discovered such authority. No previous leadership of the CFTC read the act to mean what the current leadership thinks it means.

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  • jeltz  5 hours ago

    What if CFTC would start to claim they are allowed to regulate online casinos or online poker? I feel that would be about as non-sensical.

  • nojito  8 hours ago

    There’s no “house” or “book” aspect to Kalshi. They are nothing more than contracts that are bought and sold between individuals.

    • jeltz  5 hours ago

      Have you heard of Betfair? A UK company which has done "prediction markets" since 2000. In the Europe it is called a betting exchange and regulated like sports betting. And betting pools is another form of betting which is way older than that and there are no house in them either.

      And by your argument poker or backgammon would not be gambling either.

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kevin_thibedeau  7 hours ago

> it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf.

This is Don Jr's consulting fee at work.

  • unethical_ban  6 hours ago

    This should not be downvoted and is a legitimate criticism. Trump Jr. has a "special advisory role" in both Kalshi and polymarket. It would track with this administration to deploy a rapid defense of a corruption generation market where the current president's son is getting paid off by the two main competitors in the market.