Comment by stinkbeetle
13 hours ago
Perhaps critiquing statistical methods used by polling was something he was good at. I have no real opinion of his work there, which I didn't pay attention to.
But predicting an election requires a lot more than polling datasets and statistics textbooks. That's the problem that he made himself out to be an election prediction wizard, but really that was off the back of his good prediction in quite a bland and conventional election.
When things got slightly more spicy and reality diverged from his vaunted "models", his "data science" predictably fell in a heap. The worst thing is almost not even that he got it wrong, it's that he seemed incapable of recognizing that present reality was quite significantly different from the past data he had used to build his models. Even after being wrong in so many of these predictions. He just kept churning out these pieces about how Trump was probably finished this time.
Okay, this is clearly an LLM response, but for the sake of being polite:
> But predicting an election requires a lot more than polling datasets and statistics textbooks. That's the problem that he made himself out to be an election prediction wizard, but really that was off the back of his good prediction in quite a bland and conventional election.
> When things got slightly more spicy and reality diverged from his vaunted "models", his "data science" predictably fell in a heap
The models were correct in two elections - arguably three because a 30% chance means that an outcome will occur in thirty times out of hundred. That is not zero.
To the person who is running this LLM, please find better things to do with yourself.
[flagged]
> bviously you don't believe that yourself, you're just incapable of a coherent response to the post
I definitely think a human was involved in signing up for the account and occasionally checks in.
I think my response was plenty coherent.
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