Comment by SilverBirch

What are you even classifying as accurate or correct? Do you take every 51% prediction from FiveThirtyEight and if the result is a win you consider that forecast accurate? And every 49% prediction must result in a loss? This just not how statistical forecasts work.

>What it would be reasonable to say is if his model had correctly predicted the outcome of a significant sample of elections, then you could say his model has some accuracy or predictive power.

I don't know why you're couching that in a hypothetical, FiveThirtyEight has repeatedly done that exercise.

>But it still would never have been accurate or right in the specific instances it got wrong

It is core to the concept of a probability that the result is going to go the opposite way from the prediction sometimes! It's meaningless to call it "wrong".