Comment by sswatson
5 hours ago
Good on you for spelling out this reasoning, but it is manifestly unsound. For a wide variety of values of X, people a few years ago had no reason to expect that LLMs would be capable of X. Yet here we are.
5 hours ago
Good on you for spelling out this reasoning, but it is manifestly unsound. For a wide variety of values of X, people a few years ago had no reason to expect that LLMs would be capable of X. Yet here we are.
In 1989, Gary Kasparov said that it was "ridiculous!" to suggest a computer would ever beat him at chess.
"Never shall I be beaten by a machine!”
In 1997 he lost to Deep Blue.
And today he's got salient observations on politics which hold much of his attention, and Deep Blue is shut off and has done nothing further.
Not a good argument for turning everything over to the Deep Blues. What's Deep Blue done for me lately?
Yeah, and back then people moved the goal posts too, saying Deep Blue was just "brute-forcing" chess (which isn't even true since it's not a pure minimax search).
Deep Blue was brute forcing chess in the sense that AlphaGo wasn't brute forcing Go.
This is something that could be demonstrated rather than just argued.
Train an LLM only on texts dated prior to Newton and see if it can create calculus, derrive the equations of motion, etc.
If you ask it about the nature of light and it directs you to do experiments with a prism I'd say we're really getting somewhere.
We tried this experiment with humans, back in the 17th century, and only a few[1] out of millions managed it given a whole human lifetime each.
[1] Obviously Newton counts as one. Leibniz like Newton figured out calculus. Other people did important work in dynamics though no one else's was as impressive as Newton's. But the vast majority of human-level intelligences trained on texts prior to Newton did not create calculus or derive the equations of motion or come close to doing either of those things.