Comment by vessenes
5 hours ago
To the contrary - there’s so much demand that Dario needs Elon’s compute and is willing to pay premium month to month pricing for it.
5 hours ago
To the contrary - there’s so much demand that Dario needs Elon’s compute and is willing to pay premium month to month pricing for it.
I think any warning this provides is more about the ability to forecast demand. Obviously it was a giant leap of faith, that didn't pan out, for Must to build these data centers without having a product with a growth trajectory to more rationally justify it.
OpenAI and Anthropic (and their investors!) are obviously also out on a limb here, both with deals in place to 10x their available compute (roughly 1GW -> 10GW) over next few years. Maybe these growth estimates are a bit more grounded, but they have all sorts of assumptions baked in. I still would not be surprised to see OpenAI self-implode, and to see Google and Microsoft as the eventual winners here.
For sure. There’s also this kind of interesting meta strategy question: if you think you can float the huge capex with some internally valuable processes as a base case then you might just go really big. Dario and Elon’s temperaments come in to play here