The point to short will be when the Chinese army forms up.
With Ukraine we saw it. It was incredibly obvious. Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Taiwan will be the same. But the satellites will give everyone enough warning.
The Taiwan war that the world is sleepwalking into is going to wipe out so much chip capacity that the current inflation will look like a blip.
While it's a possibility, do you believe it is likely enough in the very near future to the point where you are betting on it? Perhaps shorting TSMC?
If I did so when I first thought about it, I would be broke by now.
The point to short will be when the Chinese army forms up.
With Ukraine we saw it. It was incredibly obvious. Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Taiwan will be the same. But the satellites will give everyone enough warning.
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Are you expecting that China invades Taiwan and destroys chip production? Or cuts the world off and keeps the supply for itself?
If China were to invade successfully, Taiwan chip production will self-destruct just to prevent it from falling into Chinese hands.