Comment by hunterpayne
3 days ago
What I mean is that people disproportionately bet on their home town team. And they often bet with their hearts and not their heads. But different places have different amounts of gambling and different quality teams. So places that gamble a lot but their local team isn't very good often have lines that are off from what they should be. So a team that might only have a 20% chance of winning a given game might be given a 40-50% chance on PM. Larger betting markets (eg Vegas) tend to not have these gaps as pro betters will take advantage and move the line back to where it should be. That's what I mean.
Oh I see, you're saying the line for sports markets is significantly distorted because there's lots of fans throwing money around unwisely. I guess I just doubt this claim. The pro betters that make money at vegas can just as easily make money on polymarket. In fact in many respects it's even easier. If it's getting so distorted, then this is basically free money, and the pros will eat it up, bringing the line back to where it should be. Additionally, if you personally believe with high confidence that the line is distorted, you have the opportunity to make a lot of money. So the real evidence should be in your behavior -- do you bet on these mispriced markets? How much have you made?