Comment by ryandrake
5 hours ago
> To convert between wealth and income tax rates, you have to divide by the rate of return on capital. The conversion rate of 20 comes from assuming that the risk-free rate of return is 5%.
This seems to only be true for people whose income entirely comes from their wealth, rather than their labor. The math doesn't math for someone on the other extreme end of the spectrum who has zero savings or investments and obtains all his income from labor: To him, a N% wealth tax = 0% income tax for all N. Those with -some- savings are somewhere in the middle.
It is a very sneaky way to argue that a wealth tax should be as across-the-board unpopular as a large income tax increase. But Graham's math is only applicable to those flush with investments and with relatively small salaries from labor, so a wealth tax is only unpopular to that particular group.
I can't tell what's worse: intentionally obscuring the fact that the vast majority of people would pay ~no wealth tax or unintentionally forgetting that the vast majority of people would pay ~no wealth tax.
On the other hand, almost a majority of people already pay no federal income tax anyways. Mitt Romney mentioned a number of 47% during his presidential campaign and that number was mostly true. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2012/sep/18/mitt-romne...
People love to talk about the marginal tax rates but not the average tax rates. And I think that’s right because the conversation should be focused on the wealthiest people.
i hate when people bring it up. everybody that works pays payroll taxes which is around 25% when you count both sides.
The ultra rich are desperate to maintain their exclusive access to essentially pay no taxes through their "Buy, Borrow, Die" strategy (if you don't understand what that is you should stop and read this: https://gemini.google.com/share/e230bcecaaeb) and so they are using scare tactics / gaslighting around wealth taxes because a wealth tax would disrupt this essentially zero tax strategy.
"Buy, borrow, die" is a bit of a bogeyman of the Left; it's not a common strategy for HNW or UHNW individuals, and to the extent it is used, there are much better ways to close it than a wealth tax, which is coarse and rife with implementation issues.
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Don't speak to loudly of this fact, otherwise some leftist politician could come to the conclusion that human capital – the discounted cash flow of one's future labor income – should be taxed as wealth, too.
> intentionally obscuring the fact that the vast majority of people would pay ~no wealth tax or unintentionally forgetting that the vast majority of people would pay ~no wealth tax.
I consider this fine, because proponents of a wealth tax consistently omit that it will ultimately be the middle class who pays the tax... the ultra-wealthy and wealthy can afford sophisticated strategies to render a wealth tax ineffective against them, and if that doesn't work they can just move somewhere else. Income tax was the same.
On top of that it seems to imply that a 20% effective tax rate is outrageous even though that's totally normal for most. Maybe it's not what you're used to as really wealthy person who avoids realized income and has a 0 or 5 or 10 percent effective rate. But it's totally normal for most middle and median income folks who actually pay income taxes.
It's 20% equivalent income tax rate if you have no conventionally taxable income. Otherwise it's 20% on top of your marginal rate. In his $100 example, you'd pay $1 in wealth tax on the $100 and $1 in tax on the $5 income earned, so your total tax is $2 on $5 of income, an effective tax rate of 40%.
But any real wealth tax is going to have exemptions, only apply to wealth above some threshold, and for the wealthy who structure their finances so as to have little or no taxable income, well they end up paying 20% like all the rest of us do.
> an effective tax rate of 40%.
It's not. That calculation would say that if you have $1000 of wealth and $5 of income your effective tax rate is 220%. It's bad math.
Your conventional income is taxed separately.
A wealth tax sort of stacks with capital gains, but capital gains is way too low anyway.
20% tax on wealth (aka the potentially liquidatable value of an asset) would absolutely destroy anyone using an asset. For a classic example, look at property taxes which are a classic wealth tax. Grandma’s, people on pensions, and even middle class folks who own a home but have relatively low rates of salary increases get destroyed (and have to sell and move out) in places like Texas where property taxes aren’t capped/controlled like California under prop 13 when property prices go up.
Having your house get ‘too expensive to live in’, in fact, is a classic issue with property taxes, and was happening in California - which is exactly why prop 13 happened. And most of those locations the maximum tax is around 1-3%!
‘Wealth’ is not the same as income, because wealth is potential money, if you can sell - and if you sell, you lose access to it.
A 20% wealth tax would mean any asset which doesn’t earning free cash flow returns of at least 20% a year, or which isn’t appreciating at least 20% a year in a risk free way would be impossible to hold for anyone except the most rich people. And even they couldn’t do it for long.
I can’t think of anything which that realistically describes.
A 20% income tax reduces actual cash in hand to 80% of what you’d otherwise have, which isn’t great. But you still get the actual 80% cash in hand right now, and can use it.
You can’t have ‘80% control/ownership for the year’ of a house in a meaningful way, and especially for people actually using/relying on the asset to live, they can’t find 20% (or in most cases even 5%!) of the value in cash for the asset every year. They’d go bankrupt.
All of the people I mention wealth tax to give me the same two counter cases: Grandma and Elon.
I think there's no reason why a wealth tax can't be progressive. Just making up numbers here, it could be zero for your first 30 million, and rise to some palpable amount for your first billion.
This would protect granny from being taxed out of her house, and in fact would affect relatively few salary earners.
I'm not overlooking the possibility that such a tax structure could create an effective wealth cap at some level.
The problem in California is that it's very hard to change laws. Likewise in my state, where many aspects of the tax system are constrained by the state constitution.
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These wealth taxes are not proposed to apply to everyone evenly, that would be a regressive tax policy. There is a wealth cutoff, most commonly proposed to be around $50M.
If grandma has $50M in her house and pension, she can afford to pay a tiny tiny tiny fraction of her wealth to make sure her grandkids still have a place to live that's not falling apart.
You obviously didn't read the thing. 20% is not on wealth. The argument in the piece is that 1% on wealth is the same as 20% on income, and therefore 1% on wealth is obscene.
Please read before making replies that don't make sense in context. When I refer to 20% I'm referring the PG's characterization of a 1% wealth tax as an effective 20% income tax, not a 20% wealth tax.
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> 20% tax on wealth
Thank god no one is talking about this, then. According to Graham, a 20% wealth tax is equivalent to a 400% income tax.
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I'm retired. I hope to get a 3% per year income from my savings every year after inflation and taxes. If my state implemented a 1% wealth tax on savings each year, I would go bankrupt in 20 years. I am hoping that I will live 20 years.
Lol, that's still totally feasible for normal FIRE/retirement situations, my understanding is that most proposals only start at $50 million or more. You can still have a super cushy retirement with $3mil+ and 3% withdrawal forever.
Today, sure. In 30 years I wouldn't expect to be able to retire with less that $50 million in savings.
> only start at $50 million or more
curious how they came to that number. There's probably plenty of voters willing to cast a vote for $0.5M+ and plenty ready to cast a vote for $100M+. How was the line drawn?
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Sort of like how the income tax in America started with it only applying to the top 1% of earners?
I'm sure any wealth tax would only apply to wealth above a certain amount. For instance, inheritance tax only applies to $15mil and above. Likewise, when you sell a house the first $500K (I believe) in capital gains from the sale is tax free.
I don't think people with savings of $15mil and above (assuming that would be the cutoff) are in danger of going bankrupt in 20 yrs from a 1% wealth tax. Assuming your 3% return, they'd be earning $450,000 a year that wouldn't be touched by the wealth tax.
But why wage earners should support you by paying more taxes? Reduce your spending by 33% to keep up.
I can't tell if this is sarcasm or a serious point.
Obviously people who have retired and based their entire life plan on making that work have many fewer options than those who are still working. You are arguing that nobody can plan for any kind of secure retirement, including you.
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Corrected version:
A wealth tax of 1% is equivalent to an income tax of 20% on capital gains.
With different issues than the ones caused by deferring gains forever through shenanigans.
It isn't, because the ultra rich have no capital gains. They get ultra low interest rate loans against assets so they never have to sell assets and trigger capital gains. Google "Buy, Borrow, Die" if you don't understand this strategy.
They have to sell eventually to pay off the loans. And if they die, their estate has to sell the assets to pay off the loans, and then their heir will pay inheritance taxes on top of that.
Unless their spouse is still alive. In the US, assets' cost bases are reset when a spouse dies. That is the main way that rich people avoid capital gains taxes. I'd much prefer simply stopping that cost basis reset instead of implementing a wealth tax.
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> But Graham's math is only applicable to those flush with investments and with relatively small salaries from labor, so a wealth tax is only unpopular to that particular group.
Not quite, because you're using the opposite extreme where someone has no assets. Meanwhile the median net worth in the US ~$200k, which would be $2000/year in tax for every 1% in wealth tax. That's certainly enough for ordinary people to notice.
On top of that, the conversion is even worse than that implies for ordinary people, because the primary reason the median is ~$200k isn't that the median person has $200k their whole lives, it's that they have ~$0 when they're 18 and ~$400k when they retire and the median person is about halfway to retirement age. If you transfer tax burden from income tax to wealth tax then that means they'll be paying more in wealth tax in the second half of their life, which means they need to be saving rather than spending the money not paid in income tax, including during the first half of their life. But that causes their net worth to go up on paper by more/sooner, because they're essentially holding extra money they'll only have to pay in tax later, which in turn causes them to pay more in tax for a tax on holding assets.
Moreover, then you can't say that Alice always benefits because she has no assets and Bob always pays more because he has $400,000 because what's actually happening is that Alice pays less when she's 20 and more when she's 60. That's going to be unpopular because the 20 year olds are generally expecting to be 60 someday but the 60 year olds never expect to be 20 again.
Nobody is talking about a wealth tax on someone with a net worth of ~$200k or ~$400k.
> Nobody is talking about a wealth tax on someone with a net worth of ~$200k or ~$400k.
If that were the case the criticism of Paul Graham's reasoning would be wrong to begin with because the only people paying it would be the people who do get most of their income from investments.
Moreover, your proposal doesn't actually work. If corporations don't pay a wealth tax then rich people just put their assets into corporations that they control but don't formally own (there are many ways to do this). But if they do then ordinary people with ordinary retirement savings can't be spared, since it doesn't change your finances to have the companies your retirement savings are invested in give you lower returns by the amount they pay in wealth tax than to have you pay a wealth tax out of the returns.
When income tax was first implemented, less then 1% of people had to pay it. Taxes are a slippery slope, and that number will slide down.
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We don't know, actually. If the threshold for "wealth" is set to be >100k, then we are.
I've never seen a wealth tax proposal where "wealth" was defined as ~400K in assets. They tend to start in the millions with generous carve outs for IRAs and primary residences.
See reply to the sister comment posted earlier than yours and saying the same thing.
> The math doesn't math for someone on the other extreme end of the spectrum who has zero savings or investments and obtains all his income from labor: To him, a N% wealth tax = 0% income tax for all N. Those with -some- savings are somewhere in the middle.
Productivity comes from labor AND assets though. You need the farmer and the tractor. Why would we create a tax system that encourages people to divorce themselves from having a stake in the means of production?
> Productivity comes from labor AND assets though. You need the farmer and the tractor. Why would we create a tax system that encourages people to divorce themselves from having a stake in the means of production?
This is exactly why economic models broadly show that taxing capital assets makes workers worse off in the long run. An abundance of capital means that workers will be more productive on the margin, so their wage will be higher. This extends to the capital-income taxation involved in income taxes: pure labor taxes or consumption taxes are inherently more efficient. There are countervailing effects (taxing capital income works as an effective way of indirectly taxing the unearned value of resource-like assets, or of idiosyncratic skills that happen to correlate with holding more capital-like assets) but they can only roughly justify the current income tax arrangement, not some extra tax on assets.
Oh good! I was worried that trickle down economics was self-serving nonsense pushed by think tank economists on behalf of their benefactors. Since it is economic fact rather than self-serving fiction, when I review its track record I will find that it caused an upward inflection in real wages, right? Right?
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Oops!
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What percentage of increased productivity has gone back to the workers as increased financial health during the last say 20 years? Not increased wages. Their increase in end of day actual financial health versus end of day increase in actual financial health of the owning class? Not some Peter/Paul highlighting Peter 'wages have gone up' while ignoring any stealing from Paul 'actual financial health' has gone down metric.
300 years of thinking has established that copyright is the best way to sustain ongoing creation of knowledge and thought, yet the same crowd seem pretty fine gutting that 300 years of understanding because of their judgement that their desired use case for today outweighs the cost to society of lost future knowledge creation, so they seem plenty happy to ignore established thought when it benefits them.
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The current system without wealth taxes already largely divorces labor from equity stake. Unless you're one of the relatively few tech or office workers who get equity compensation or have a large savings rate, you currently don't have much of a stake in any means of production.
I'm not disputing the claim that few people are able to save and invest into having a stake in the means of production.
However, if your goal is to increase stakeholdership, how would a policy that explicitly disincentivizes that behavior fix anything?
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Regular people have less and less savings to buy "stakes in the means of production". Capital is getting more and more concentrated in fewer and fewer hands: the top 10% of the country owns almost 80% of it all. Wealth needs to be taxed and redistributed.
I think it’s a good point that these taxes don’t apply to most people. Another reason they don’t apply is that most people save for retirement using retirement accounts.
But nothing in the article implies that these wealth taxes apply to most people. The argument is that a 1% wealth tax is equivalent to a 20% income tax because, under certain assumptions, the government gets the same amount of money.
Only in theory. In practice it’s not equivalent at all because once you reach a certain (very high) level of wealth, there’s the “buy, borrow, die” strategy that avoids realizing most of your capital gains. I’ve also heard of proposals to tax asset-backed loans above a certain threshold, which is aimed at the “borrow” part of the strategy. But the concern there is that the super wealthy may quickly find a different strategy for tax avoidance, so a blanket wealth tax should be harder to circumvent. But as with anything to do with the tax code, those with the best tax accountants and lawyers seldom end up losing.
> because once you reach a certain (very high) level of wealth, there’s the “buy, borrow, die” strategy that avoids realizing most of your capital gains
If that is what is being targeted, then why not actually target that. Apply some percent taxation on the current value of all assets transferred because of death. And, if they want, only apply it to estates over some X threshold in size.
Performing the taxation at time of probate makes the valuation easy (unlike a 'wealth tax') because the valuation could be one of "value at time of death" or "value at time of transfer". And, if the ultra wealthy are using this angle to avoid taxes, then this taxes some of that transferred value.
Of course, just like with subscriptions, to the politicians a yearly wealth tax is far more valuable than a one time tax on the total value of the estate.
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There is no evidence[0] that the wealthy use the "buy, borrow, die" strategy in any significant way. The underlying financial math doesn't make sense if the goal is to maximize wealth so it isn't surprising that wealthy people don't actually do it.
[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00472...
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I feel the same way. I hear a lot of complains about wealth tax but it always seems like the problems mainly pertain to billionaires. I don't see why we should optimize for that small minority.
If we moved to a wealth tax I'd be the first in line to pay it. So long as everyone else had to pay it too.
WSJ Opinion Piece: "Why It'd Be A Mistake To Inconvenience Billionaires" -Some Other Billionaire
If you mean that a person with 0 savings pays 0 wealth tax, then sure. Most people when they earn income save some of it. Therefore it is wealth taxed.
It seems fairly simple to have a standard deduction so that only folks with wealth over a certain amount get taxed.
>Most people when they earn income save some of it. Therefore it is wealth taxed.
This is one of those “check your privilege” moments and one where it is best to look at the median and not just the average when talking about household wealth in the US. Between 57% and 67% of U.S. adults are estimated to live paycheck to paycheck. They aren’t saving it, they’re going into debt because the only local grocery store is a Dollar General and it’s just a clever name nowadays.
Almost all wealth tax proposal I’ve seen start at the level of 8-9 figures of wealth. Why are we now talking about it as if it’s going to apply to your average person’s savings account? If we’re just going to accept these billionaire-invented narratives around the wealth tax, then there’s really no point in discussing the actual pros and cons of these proposals.
Because it’s the standard playbook for dealing with even the slightest suggestion of fairer taxation. Trot out an old dude in a suit from a Foundation, make sure to avoid anyone knowing exactly what that foundation does or who funds it and have him suggest it’s a really nice idea, but the unforeseen consequences will actually hurt “working people like you and me”. Present as fact, job done.
> But Graham's math is only applicable to those flush with investments and with relatively small salaries from labor, so a wealth tax is only unpopular to that particular group.
That can be quite a lot of people on HN, and also including FIRE people, so I can see why it's unpopular.
Most FIRE people aren't going to have $50 million plus and be hit by this.
It will never stop at $50M. Once the law is created it is sooo much easier to just lower the threshold. Even if not lowered, in 30 years inflation means it will capture a whole different number of people - maybe you. Maybe it will bankrupt your children.
Billionaires gonna billionaire, I guess.
It's so funny to me how many people have taken envy up as their core personality. Billionaires happened to have created the most opportunities for everybody. Amazon is amazing for the consumer that seeks convenience, but it's also amazing if you want to dropship and make your living off of that. Independent sellers make up 65% of all sales on Amazon. So somewhere the idea that nobody benefits from the creations of billionaires has to be questioned.
Illegal and legal immigrants are being completely supported by Uber right now in NYC. If you lived here you would know that this is their primary source of income for many of them.
The gate that previously blocked your ability to disseminate your ideas to a wide audience and create a living off of it has been completely torn down by the billionaires that create platforms like Tiktok. There are scores of people that have made a living off of this, which was virtually impossible before. The barrier to entry to start from grass roots and build a following and then monetize it has been erased.
It's completely banal at this point to just point at billionaires and say they are the problem just because of envy. I wish there was a plugin for it so I can erase it from my consumption.
The premise that billionaires are less efficient than the government at deploying capital to serve society is incongruent with reality, but sure, they are a convenient scapegoat if your heart is poisoned by envy and lack. That's really all it is and it needs to be called out more often because it's a mind virus that is easy to infect others with. Your life is not served by being clouded by envy and lack, and spreading it is detrimental to all consciousness.
There is objectively more paths to success than ever before. Being preoccupied with what you don't have currently and pointing the finger to blame at some boogeyman billionaire is not going to change anything for your personal life. The buck is on the person with the finger to improve their life and take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to them. Spending your time being mad that people have created something society deems worthwhile and are being rewarded for it is spending your time being envious about something that has nothing to do with your own problems.
> the idea that nobody benefits from the creations of billionaires has to be questioned
Who said that? Not in the post that prompted your reply, nor in the parent post.
> Illegal and legal immigrants are being completely supported by Uber right now in NYC.
Can you prove that taxis wouldn't have been able to do that, if Uber didn't exist? That wealth taxes wouldn't have been able to support them?
> The gate that previously blocked your ability to disseminate your ideas to a wide audience and create a living off of it has been completely torn down by the billionaires that create platforms
Musk is also erecting new gates, to promote himself and his ideas. I have to admit, I'm surprised what he lets stay up there, but I still don't believe it's an actual free platform.
> I wish there was a plugin for it so I can erase it from my consumption.
Vibecode it; the billionaires tore down the gates that previously blocked your ability to have any software you want -- as long as the billionaires accede to your use of their AI and running your own software against their platforms, of course.
You complain about open platforms filled with people giving you their ideas for free, and you just don't like what they're saying, but you just cited exactly that openness as one of the valuable things that billionaires deserve to have billions for.
> The premise that billionaires are less efficient than the government at deploying capital to serve society is incongruent with reality
Nobody said that, explicitly. Maybe the people arguing against billionaires don't believe capital efficiency is paramount, so you'd have to persuade them of that first, otherwise you're just saying "But capitalism is the right way, of course!"
It is less amusing how many of our brethren think the Landed Gentry got there by merit and deserve to live in their castles untroubled by the rabble.
I don't think anyone is simply envious. People mean to point out that allowing individual accumulation of wealth to extreme degrees lead to runaway structural problems. Billionaires and companies existing and providing wages are not inextricably intertwined. It's entirely possible to have one while preventing the other. The idea that the only way you can incentivize individuals to start companies is to allow them to accumulate so much wealth that they become tiny kings is patently absurd. The world has thousands of companies and founders who happily sustain their businesses without ever reaching this ungodly and idiotic level of uber wealth.
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